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Does choice of drought index influence estimates of drought-induced rice losses in India?

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  • Fontes, Francisco
  • Gorst, Ashley
  • Palmer, Charles

Abstract

Drought events have critical impacts on agricultural production yet there is little consensus on how these should be measured and defined, with implications for drought research and policy. We develop a flexible rainfall-temperature drought index that captures all dry events and we classify these as Type 1 (above-average cooling degree days) and Type 2 droughts (below-average cooling degree days). Applied to a panel dataset of Indian districts over 1966-2009, Type 2 droughts are found to have negative marginal impacts comparable to those of Type 1 droughts. Irrigation more effectively reduces Type 2 drought-induced yield losses than Type 1 yield losses. Over time, Type 1 drought losses have declined while Type 2 losses have risen. Estimates of average yield losses due to Type 1 droughts are reduced by up to 27 per cent when Type 2 droughts are omitted. The associated ex-post economic costs in terms of rice production are underestimated by up to 124 per cent.

Suggested Citation

  • Fontes, Francisco & Gorst, Ashley & Palmer, Charles, 2020. "Does choice of drought index influence estimates of drought-induced rice losses in India?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103378, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:103378
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    Cited by:

    1. Anubhab Pattanayak & K. S. Kavi Kumar, 2022. "Fiscal Transfers, Natural Calamities and Partisan Politics: Evidence from India," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 375-392, July.
    2. Francisco Fontes & Ashley Gorst & Charles Palmer, 2021. "Threshold effects of extreme weather events on cereal yields in India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-20, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    agriculture; rice; climate; drought; India; rainfall; temperature; ES/K006576/1;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • Q19 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Other
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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