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Probability of Bank Failure: The Russian Case

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Author Info
Konstandina Natalia ()
Abstract

A question of explaining bank failures constitutes perhaps one of the greatest interest to banks' clients, policy-makers and regulators. Not surprisingly, for a long time, this question has been a challenge for theoretical and empirical economists. In this paper we investigate which factors affect soundness of a bank, taking into consideration micro level data, as well as macro level component. We also employ efficiency estimate, obtained with the help of DEA, to account for the quality of management. Then we use logit model and proportional hazard model with efficiency component. We find that efficiency element, together with size and regional belonging, are highly significant in all specifications, while macro variables did not seem to influence failures significantly.

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Paper provided by EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS in its series EERC Working Paper Series with number 06-01e.

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Date of creation: 13 Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:06-01e

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Related research
Keywords: Russia; Russian banking; failures; efficiency;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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  2. Zaim, Osman, 1995. "The Effect of Financial Liberalization on the Efficiency of Turkish Commercial Banks," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 257-64, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Were Financial Crises Predictable?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(1), pages 102-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Molina, Carlos A., 2002. "Predicting bank failures using a hazard model: the Venezuelan banking crisis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 31-50, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Berg, Sigbjorn Atle & Forsund, Finn R. & Hjalmarsson, Lennart & Suominen, Matti, 1993. "Banking efficiency in the Nordic countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2-3), pages 371-388, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Peresetsky, Anatoly A. & Karminsky, Alexandr A. & Golovan, Sergei V., 2004. "Probability of default models of Russian banks," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  9. Allen N. Berger & Timothy H. Hannan, 1998. "The Efficiency Cost Of Market Power In The Banking Industry: A Test Of The "Quiet Life" And Related Hypotheses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 454-465, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Patrick Honohan, 1997. "Banking system failures in developing and transition countries: Diagnosis and predictions," BIS Working Papers 39, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  11. Kraft, Evan & Tirtiroglu, Dogan, 1998. "Bank Efficiency in Croatia: A Stochastic-Frontier Analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 282-300, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Resti, Andrea, 1997. "Evaluating the cost-efficiency of the Italian Banking System: What can be learned from the joint application of parametric and non-parametric techniques," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 221-250, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Brenda González-Hermosillo, 1999. "Determinants of Ex-Ante Banking System Distress: A Macro-Micro Empirical Exploration of Some Recent Episodes," IMF Working Papers 99/33, International Monetary Fund.
  15. English, M. & Grosskopf, S. & Hayes, K. & Yaisawarng, S., 1993. "Output allocative and technical efficiency of banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2-3), pages 349-366, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Meyer, Paul A & Pifer, Howard W, 1970. "Prediction of Bank Failures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 853-68, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 1993. "Explaining bank failures: deposit insurance, regulation, and efficiency," Working Papers 1993-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Allen N. Berger & Timothy H. Hannan, 1993. "Using efficiency measures to distinguish among alternative explanations of the structure-performance relationship in banking," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  20. Allen N. Berger & David B. Humphrey, 1992. "Measurement and Efficiency Issues in Commercial Banking," NBER Chapters, in: Output Measurement in the Service Sectors, pages 245-300 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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