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Asian Fragmentation in the Global Financial Crisis

Author

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  • Toshihiro Okubo
  • Fukunari Kimura
  • Nozomu Teshima

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 on Japanese exports, focusing on international production networks in machinery sectors. For our survival analysis, we estimate a Cox proportional hazards model. Consequently, we find that Japanese exports to Asian countries, parts and components trade in particular, were less likely to stop during the crisis. Even if they stopped, such trade is more likely to be revived. Therefore, regardless of the worldwide economic crisis, Japan maintained trade relationships in parts and components in the machinery sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Toshihiro Okubo & Fukunari Kimura & Nozomu Teshima, 2014. "Asian Fragmentation in the Global Financial Crisis," CAMA Working Papers 2014-30, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2014-30
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mitsuyo Ando & Fukunari Kimura & Kenta Yamanouchi, 2022. "RCEP and International Production Networks," Chapters, in: Fukunari Kimura & Shandre Mugan Thangavelu & Dionisius Narjoko (ed.), Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: Implications, Challenges, and Future Growth of East Asia and ASEAN, chapter 6, pages 141-170, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    3. Hayato Kato & Toshihiro Okubo, 2017. "The Impact of a Natural Disaster on Foreign Direct Investment and Vertical Linkages," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2017-018, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    4. Toshihiro Okubo & Yuta Watabe & Kaori Furuyama, 2016. "Export of Recyclable Materials: Evidence from Japan," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 15(1), pages 134-148, Winter/Sp.
    5. Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2022. "Winners and losers in global supply chain trade: Embedding GSC in CGE," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    6. Ayako Obashi, 2022. "Overview of Foreign Direct Investment, Trade, and Global Value Chains in East Asia," Working Papers DP-2021-50, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    7. Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2015. "Spillover effects of the U.S. financial crisis on financial markets in emerging Asian countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 192-210.
    8. Zhang, Jingjing, 2015. "Carbon emission, energy consumption and intermediate goods trade: A regional study of East Asia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 118-122.
    9. Sasahara, Akira, 2019. "Explaining the employment effect of exports: Value-added content matters," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-21.
    10. Ayako Obashi, 2021. "East Asian Production Networks Amidst the COVID-19 Shock," Working Papers DP-2021-10, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    11. Liyan Han & Mengchao Qi & Libo Yin, 2016. "Macroeconomic policy uncertainty shocks on the Chinese economy: a GVAR analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(51), pages 4907-4921, November.
    12. Cassey LEE, 2014. "Competition Law Enforcement in Malaysia: Some Recent Developments," Working Papers DP-2014-02, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    13. Lee, Bong Soo & Paek, Miyoun & Ha, Yeonjeong & Ko, Kwangsoo, 2015. "The dynamics of market volatility, market return, and equity fund flow: International evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 214-227.
    14. Lin, Chin-Ho, 2015. "The impact of tariff rates on the probability of trade relationships survival: evidence from ASEAN+6 manufactured goods," MPRA Paper 71260, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Fukunari Kimura, 2020. "Exit Strategies for ASEAN Member States: Keeping Production Networks Alive Despite the Impending Demand Shock," Working Papers PB-2020-03, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    16. Prema‐chandra Athukorala & Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2018. "Global Supply Chains: Towards A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 37(3), pages 198-219, September.
    17. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2017. "Global Supply Chains: towards a CGE analysis," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-281, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    18. Rizal SUKMA, 2014. "ASEAN Beyond 2-15: The Imperatives for Further International Changes," Working Papers DP-2014-01, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    19. Yasuyuki SAWADA & Fauziah ZEN, 2014. "Disaster Management in ASEAN," Working Papers DP-2014-03, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    20. Chin‐Ho Lin, 2020. "Impact of tariff rates on the probability of trade relationship survival: Evidence from ASEAN+6 manufactured goods," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 457-474, October.
    21. Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Krzysztof Dmytrów, 2021. "A survival analysis in the assessment of the influence of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on the probability and intensity of decline in the value of stock indices," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(2), pages 363-379, June.
    22. Fukunari Kimura & Keita Oikawa, 2022. "The Conceptual Framework of New Development Strategies," Chapters, in: Fukunari Kimura & Keita Oikawa (ed.), The Comprehensive Asia Development Plan (CADP) 3.0: Towards an Integrated, Innovative, Inclusive, and Sustainable Economy, chapter 1, pages 2-56, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crisis; Asian trade; parts and components; exit-entry diagram; survival analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F61 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Microeconomic Impacts

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