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Oil Price Dynamics in a Real Business Cycle Model

Author

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  • Vipin Arora
  • Pedro Gomis-Porqueras

Abstract

We show the importance of endogenous oil prices and production in the real business cycle framework. Endogenising these variables improves the model’s predictions of business cycle statistics, oil related and non-oil related, relative to a situation where either is exogenous. This result is robust to the standard extensions (variable capacity utilisation and monopolistic competition) used in the literature. In particular, we first show that with either exogenous oil prices or production the standard real business cycle model and variants cannot match the oil-related and business cycle facts. In contrast, when both of these variables are endogenous, we can substantially improve the corresponding co-movements and slightly improve standard business cycle properties for consumption and investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Vipin Arora & Pedro Gomis-Porqueras, 2011. "Oil Price Dynamics in a Real Business Cycle Model," CAMA Working Papers 2011-17, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2011-17
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Lin & Zhang, Xun & Wang, Shouyang & Xu, Shanying, 2016. "The effects of oil price shocks on output and inflation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 101-110.
    2. Arora Vipin, 2014. "Aggregate impacts of recent US natural gas trends," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-25, January.
    3. Vipin Arora and Jozef Lieskovsky, 2014. "Natural Gas and U.S. Economic Activity," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    4. Myunghyun Kim, 2018. "Commodities and International Business Cycles," Working Papers 2018-47, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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