Applying Shape and Phase Restrictions in Generalized Dynamic Categorical Models of the Business Cycle
AbstractTo match the NBER business cycle features it is necessary to employ Gen- eralised dynamic categorical (GDC) models that impose certain phase re- strictions and permit multiple indexes. Theory suggests additional shape re- strictions in the form of monotonicity and boundedness of certain transition probabilities. Maximum likelihood and constraint weighted bootstrap esti- mators are developed to impose these restrictions. In the application these estimators generate improved estimates of how the probability of recession varies with the yield spread.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2010-25.
Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision:
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Other versions of this item:
- Don Harding, 2010. "Applying shape and phase restrictions in generalized dynamic categorical models of the business cycle," Working Papers 2010.05, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
- Don Harding, 2010. "Applying shape and phase restrictions in generalized dynamic categorical models of the business cycle," NCER Working Paper Series 58, National Centre for Econometric Research.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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- Racine, Jeffrey S., 2008. "Nonparametric Econometrics: A Primer," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(1), pages 1-88, March.
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"An Econometric Analysis Of Some Models For Constructed Binary Time Series,"
CAMA Working Papers
2009-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2011. "An Econometric Analysis of Some Models for Constructed Binary Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 86-95.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2009. "An Econometric Analysis of Some Models for Constructed Binary Time Series," NCER Working Paper Series 39, National Centre for Econometric Research, revised 02 Jul 2009.
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- Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013.
"Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model,"
2013:17, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
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