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Convergence And Per Capita Carbon Emissions

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  • Warwick J. McKibbin

    ()

  • Alison Stegman

    ()

Abstract

The notion of "convergence" of economic variables across countries is a useful concept and in the case of income per capita, a well studied area. If there is empirical evidence of convergence of some economic variables across countries, then our ability to prdict the future (or at least difference between countries in the future) is enhanced. It is common in long run projections of climate change to base these projections on some notion of full or partial convergence whether in incomes per capita, teachnologies, energy intensities, emissions intensities of energy or per capita carbon emissions. But what is the empirical basis of these assumptions? This paper explores the historical experience of a range of variables related to climate change projections with the goal of examining if there is any evidence historically of convergence. The focus of the paper is on per capita carbon emissions from fossil fuel use because this is the basis of many projections as well as a variety of policy proposals. We also present evidence on GDP per capita, energy intensity of output and the emissions intensity o energy supply. We find strong evidence that the wide variety of assumptions about "convergence" commonly used in emissions projections are not based on empirically observed phenomena.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2005-10.

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Length: 75 pages
Date of creation: May 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2005-10

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References

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  1. Sala-i-martin, X., 1995. "The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis," Papers 734, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  2. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X., 1996. "Regional cohesion: Evidence and theories of regional growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1325-1352, June.
  3. Pagan,Adrian & Ullah,Aman, 1999. "Nonparametric Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521355643, October.
  4. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2001. "15 years of new growth economics: What have we learnt?," Economics Working Papers 620, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2002.
  5. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April.
  6. Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995. "Convergence in International Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
  7. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
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Cited by:
  1. Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2010. "On the non-convergence of energy intensities: Evidence from a pair-wise econometric approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 641-650, January.
  2. Myriam Nourry, 2009. "Re-Examining the Empirical Evidence for Stochastic Convergence of Two Air Pollutants with a Pair-Wise Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 44(4), pages 555-570, December.
  3. Westerlund, Joakim & Basher, Syed A., 2007. "Testing for Convergence in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Using a Century of Panel Data," MPRA Paper 3262, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Nilgun Yavuz & Veli Yilanci, 2013. "Convergence in Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions Among G7 Countries: A TAR Panel Unit Root Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(2), pages 283-291, February.
  5. Mariam Camarero & Yurena Mendoza & Javier Ordóñez, 2011. "Re-examining CO2 emissions. Is the assessment of convergence meaningless?," Working Papers 2011/06, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
  6. Marco Barassi & Matthew Cole & Robert Elliott, 2008. "Stochastic Divergence or Convergence of Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Re-examining the Evidence," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 40(1), pages 121-137, May.
  7. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Pearce, David & Stegman, Alison, 2007. "Long term projections of carbon emissions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 637-653.
  8. D.S. Prasada Rao & Alicia Rambaldi & Howard Doran, 2008. "A Method to Construct World Tables of Purchasing Power Parities and Real Incomes Based on Multiple Benchmarks and Auxiliary Information: Analytical and Empirical Results," CEPA Working Papers Series WP052008, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  9. Alicia N. Rambaldi & D.S. Prasada Rao & K. Renuka Ganegodage, 2009. "Spatial Autocorrelation and Extrapolation of Purchasing Power Parities. Modelling and Sensitivity Analysis," CEPA Working Papers Series WP012009, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  10. Alison Stegman, 2011. "Sectoral Productivity, Structural Change and Convergence," CAMA Working Papers 2011-32, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  11. McKitrick, Ross & Wood, Joel, 2013. "Co-fluctuation patterns of per capita carbon dioxide emissions: The role of energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-12.
  12. David I. Stern, 2005. "The Effect of NAFTA on Energy and Environmental Efficiency in Mexico," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0511, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.

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