IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eec/wpaper/1906.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Determinants of German outward FDI: variable selection using Bayesian statistical

Author

Listed:
  • Mariam Camarero

    (Jaume I University. Department of Economics, Av. de Vicent Sos Baynat s/n, E-12071 Castellón, Spain)

  • Laura Montolio

    (University of Valencia, Department of Applied Economics II, Av. dels Tarongers, s/n Eastern Department Building E-46022 Valencia, Spain)

  • Cecilio Tamarit

    (University of Valencia, INTECO Joint Research Unit. Department of Applied Economics II. PO Box 22.006 - E-46071 Valencia, Spain)

Abstract

This paper provides new evidence on the drivers of German outward foreign direct investment (FDI) stocks for the period 1996-2012. In contrast to previous empirical studies, we adopt a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach for a robust selection of those variables. We find evidence that determinants that are associated with horizontal FDI appear to be dominant for explaining bilateral FDI with developed countries while for the group of developing countries covariates associated with vertical FDI motives play a larger role. Within Europe, while the majority of FDI is horizontally driven in “core" countries, for peripheral ones the vertical motivation for FDI seems to prevail. Moreover, our results are compatible with more complex FDI models where vertical determinants and institutional variables are gaining prominence, in parallel with the development of global value chains (GVC). Our results can provide hints for policymakers’ strategies to attract German investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariam Camarero & Laura Montolio & Cecilio Tamarit, 2019. "Determinants of German outward FDI: variable selection using Bayesian statistical," Working Papers 1906, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    • Handle: RePEc:eec:wpaper:1906
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repecsrv.uv.es/paper/RePEc/pdf/eec_1906.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2019
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philipp Harms & Heinrich W. Ursprung, 2002. "Do Civil and Political Repression Really Boost Foreign Direct Investments?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 651-663, October.
    2. Mariam Camarero & Estrella Gómez-Herrera & Cecilio Tamarit, 2018. "New Evidence on Trade and FDI: how Large is the Euro Effect?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 451-467, April.
    3. Franco, Chiara, 2013. "Exports and FDI motivations: Empirical evidence from U.S. foreign subsidiaries," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 47-62.
    4. Jörn Kleinert & Farid Toubal, 2010. "Gravity for FDI," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 1-13, February.
    5. Wilfred J. Ethier & James R. Markusen, 2021. "Multinational firms, technology diffusion and trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 7, pages 131-158, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Isabel Faeth, 2009. "Determinants Of Foreign Direct Investment – A Tale Of Nine Theoretical Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 165-196, February.
    7. Agnès Bénassy‐Quéré & Maylis Coupet & Thierry Mayer, 2007. "Institutional Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5), pages 764-782, May.
    8. Susana Assunção & Rosa Forte & Aurora A. C. Teixeira, 2011. "Location Determinants Of Fdi: A Literature Review," FEP Working Papers 433, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    9. Bruce A. Blonigen & Ronald B. Davies & Glen R. Waddell & Helen T. Naughton, 2019. "FDI in Space: Spatial Autoregressive Relationships in Foreign Direct Investment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 2, pages 55-88, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Desbordes, Rodolphe & Koop, Gary & Vicard, Vincent, 2018. "One size does not fit all… panel data: Bayesian model averaging and data poolability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 364-376.
    11. Bruce A. Blonigen & Jeremy Piger, 2019. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 1, pages 3-54, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Horstmann, Ignatius J & Markusen, James R, 1987. "Strategic Investments and the Development of Multinationals," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(1), pages 109-121, February.
    13. Karolina Ekholm & Rikard Forslid & James R. Markusen, 2021. "Export-Platform Foreign Direct Investment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 6, pages 111-130, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Egger, Peter & Winner, Hannes, 2005. "Evidence on corruption as an incentive for foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 932-952, December.
    15. Camarero, Mariam & Forte, Anabel & Garcia-Donato, Gonzalo & Mendoza, Yurena & Ordoñez, Javier, 2015. "Variable selection in the analysis of energy consumption–growth nexus," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 207-216.
    16. Eaton Jonathan & Tamura Akiko, 1994. "Bilateralism and Regionalism in Japanese and U.S. Trade and Direct Foreign Investment Patterns," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 478-510, December.
    17. Maria Guadalupe & Olga Kuzmina & Catherine Thomas, 2012. "Innovation and Foreign Ownership," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3594-3627, December.
    18. Shang-Jin Wei, 2000. "How Taxing is Corruption on International Investors?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 1-11, February.
    19. Bruce A. Blonigen, 2019. "Firm-Specific Assets and the Link Between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 3, pages 89-120, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. James Mitchell & Nigel Pain & Rebecca Riley, 2011. "The drivers of international migration to the UK: A panel‐based Bayesian model averaging approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(557), pages 1398-1444, December.
    21. Agiomirgianakis, G. M. & Asteriou, D. & Papathoma, K., 2003. "The determinants of foreign direct investment: a panel data study for the OECD countries," Working Papers 03/06, Department of Economics, City University London.
    22. Elhanan Helpman & Marc J. Melitz & Stephen R. Yeaple, 2004. "Export Versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 300-316, March.
    23. James R. Markusen & Keith E. Maskus, 2002. "Discriminating Among Alternative Theories of the Multinational Enterprise," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(4), pages 694-707, November.
    24. Elizabeth Asiedu, 2006. "Foreign Direct Investment in Africa: The Role of Natural Resources, Market Size, Government Policy, Institutions and Political Instability," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 63-77, January.
    25. di Giovanni, Julian, 2005. "What drives capital flows? The case of cross-border M&A activity and financial deepening," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 127-149, January.
    26. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Gabriele Tondl, 2015. "Robust determinants of OECD FDI in developing countries: Insights from Bayesian model averaging," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1095851-109, December.
    27. Christian Daude & Ernesto Stein, 2007. "The Quality Of Institutions And Foreign Direct Investment," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 317-344, November.
    28. Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2004. "Distance, trade and FDI: a Hausman-Taylor SUR approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 227-246.
    29. Bruce Blonigen, 2005. "A Review of the Empirical Literature on FDI Determinants," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(4), pages 383-403, December.
    30. John H. Dunning, 1977. "Trade, Location of Economic Activity and the MNE: A Search for an Eclectic Approach," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Bertil Ohlin & Per-Ove Hesselborn & Per Magnus Wijkman (ed.), The International Allocation of Economic Activity, chapter 12, pages 395-418, Palgrave Macmillan.
    31. Globerman, Steven & Shapiro, Daniel, 2002. "Global Foreign Direct Investment Flows: The Role of Governance Infrastructure," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 1899-1919, November.
    32. Baltagi, Badi H. & Egger, Peter & Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2007. "Estimating models of complex FDI: Are there third-country effects?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 260-281, September.
    33. Axel Berger & Matthias Busse & Peter Nunnenkamp & Martin Roy, 2013. "Do trade and investment agreements lead to more FDI? Accounting for key provisions inside the black box," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 247-275, June.
    34. Busse, Matthias & Hefeker, Carsten, 2007. "Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 397-415, June.
    35. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka, 2007. "Productivity and Taxes as Drivers of FDI," Working Papers 172007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    36. Ng, Adam & Ibrahim, Mansor H. & Mirakhor, Abbas, 2016. "Does trust contribute to stock market development?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 239-250.
    37. Lilia Cavallari & Stefano d'Addona, 2013. "Nominal and real volatility as determinants of FDI," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(18), pages 2603-2610, June.
    38. Maureen Lankhuizen & Henri L. F. de Groot & Gert‐Jan M. Linders, 2011. "The Trade‐Off between Foreign Direct Investments and Exports: The Role of Multiple Dimensions of Distance," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(8), pages 1395-1416, August.
    39. Brainard, S Lael, 1997. "An Empirical Assessment of the Proximity-Concentration Trade-off between Multinational Sales and Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 520-544, September.
    40. Stein, Ernesto & Daude, Christian, 2007. "Longitude matters: Time zones and the location of foreign direct investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 96-112, March.
    41. Eicher, Theo S. & Helfman, Lindy & Lenkoski, Alex, 2012. "Robust FDI determinants: Bayesian Model Averaging in the presence of selection bias," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 637-651.
    42. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Egger, Peter, 2007. "A knowledge-and-physical-capital model of international trade flows, foreign direct investment, and multinational enterprises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 278-308, November.
    43. Demekas, Dimitri G. & Horvath, Balazs & Ribakova, Elina & Wu, Yi, 2007. "Foreign direct investment in European transition economies--The role of policies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 369-386, June.
    44. World Bank Group, 2017. "World Development Report 2017 [Rapport sur le développement dans le monde 2017]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 25880, December.
    45. Wei, Yu & Cao, Yang, 2017. "Forecasting house prices using dynamic model averaging approach: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 147-155.
    46. Head, Keith & Ries, John, 2008. "FDI as an outcome of the market for corporate control: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 2-20, January.
    47. Helpman, Elhanan, 1984. "A Simple Theory of International Trade with Multinational Corporations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(3), pages 451-471, June.
    48. Chakrabarti, Avik, 2001. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: Sensitivity Analyses of Cross-Country Regressions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 89-113.
    49. Dunning, John H., 2000. "The eclectic paradigm as an envelope for economic and business theories of MNE activity," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 163-190, April.
    50. Valerija Botrić & Lorena Škuflić, 2006. "Main Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the Southeast European Countries," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 13(2), pages 359-377, July.
    51. Timo Mitze, 2012. "Trade-FDI Linkages in a Simultaneous Equations System of Gravity Models for German Regional Data," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, in: Empirical Modelling in Regional Science, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 123-164, Springer.
    52. Adam, Antonis & Filippaios, Fragkiskos, 2007. "Foreign direct investment and civil liberties: A new perspective," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1038-1052, December.
    53. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 1999. "Aggregating governance indicators," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2195, The World Bank.
    54. Wheeler, David & Mody, Ashoka, 1992. "International investment location decisions : The case of U.S. firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 57-76, August.
    55. Elhanan Helpman, 1985. "Multinational Corporations and Trade Structure," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 52(3), pages 443-457.
    56. Yang, Yong & Mallick, Sushanta, 2014. "Explaining cross-country differences in exporting performance: The role of country-level macroeconomic environment," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 246-259.
    57. Dunning, John H, 1979. "Explaining Changing Patterns of International Production: In Defence of the Eclectic Theory," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 41(4), pages 269-295, November.
    58. Toubal, Farid & Kleinert, Jörn & Buch, Claudia M., 2003. "Determinants of German FDI: New Evidence from Micro-Data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    59. Venables, Anthony J., 1999. "Fragmentation and multinational production," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 935-945, April.
    60. Man, Georg, 2015. "Competition and the growth of nations: International evidence from Bayesian model averaging," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 491-501.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kox, Henk L.M., 2022. "A micro-macro model of foreign direct investment: knowledge-based gravity forces, self-selection and third-country effects," MPRA Paper 115542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kox, Henk L.M., 2022. "Explaining foreign direct investment patterns: a testable micro-macro gravity model for FDI," MPRA Paper 115273, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Camarero, Mariam & Montolio, Laura & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2019. "What drives German foreign direct investment? New evidence using Bayesian statistical techniques," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 326-345.
    2. Mariam Camarero & Laura Montolio & Cecilio Tamarit, 2020. "Determinants of FDI for Spanish regions: evidence using stock data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2779-2820, December.
    3. Mariam Camarero & Sergi Moliner & Cecilio Tamarit, 2021. "Is there a euro effect in the drivers of US FDI? New evidence using Bayesian model averaging techniques," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(4), pages 881-926, November.
    4. Raphaël Chiappini, 2014. "Institutional Determinants of Japanese Outward FDI in the Manufacturing Industry," GREDEG Working Papers 2014-11, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    5. Mariam Camarero & Laura Montolio & Cecilio Tamarit, 2019. "Alternative Estimators For The Fdi Gravity Model: An Application To German Outward Fdi," Working Papers 1907, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    6. Mariam Camarero & Sergi Moliner & Cecilio Tamarit, 2020. "Japan's FDI drivers in a time of financial uncertainty. New evidence based on Bayesian Model," Working Papers 2007, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    7. Mariam Camarero & Sergi Moliner & Cecilio Tamarit, 2019. "Searching The Us Fdi Determinants In The Eu: Is There A Euro Effect?," Working Papers 1916, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    8. Camarero, Mariam & Moliner, Sergi & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2021. "Japan's FDI drivers in a time of financial uncertainty. New evidence based on Bayesian Model Averaging," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    9. Raphael Chiappini & François Viaud, 2021. "Macroeconomic, institutional, and sectoral determinants of outward foreign direct investment: Evidence from Japan," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 404-433, August.
    10. Mariam Camarero & Sergi Moliner & Cecilio Tamarit, 2022. "A fresh assessment of the euro effect on outward US FDI," Working Papers 2209, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    11. Maria Borga & Perla Ibarlucea Flores & Monika Sztajerowska, 2020. "Drivers of divestment decisions of multinational enterprises - A cross-country firm-level perspective," OECD Working Papers on International Investment 2019/03, OECD Publishing.
    12. Federico Carril‐Caccia & Elena Pavlova, 2020. "Mergers and acquisitions & trade: A global value chain analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 586-614, March.
    13. Konstantinos Dellis, 2018. "Financial development and FDI flows: evidence from advanced economies," Working Papers 254, Bank of Greece.
    14. Federico Carril-Caccia & Juliette Milgram Baleix & Jordi Paniagua, 2019. "The foreign direct investment-institution nexus in oil-abundant countries," Working Papers 1903, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    15. Federico Carril-Caccia & Juliette Milgram-Baleix & Jordi Paniagua, 2019. "Foreign Direct Investment in oil-abundant countries: The role of institutions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-23, April.
    16. Sarker, Bibhuti & Serieux, John, 2023. "Multilevel determinants of FDI: A regional comparative analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(3).
    17. Mariam Camarero & Laura Montolio & Cecilio Tamarit, 2022. "Explaining German outward FDI in the EU: a reassessment using Bayesian model averaging and GLM estimators," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 487-511, February.
    18. Céline Azémar & Rodolphe Desbordes, 2010. "Short‐run Strategies for Attracting Foreign Direct Investment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(7), pages 928-957, July.
    19. Juliana D. Araujo & Povilas Lastauskas & Chris Papageorgiou, 2017. "Evolution of Bilateral Capital Flows to Developing Countries at Intensive and Extensive Margins," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1517-1554, October.
    20. Akhtaruzzaman, M. & Berg, Nathan & Hajzler, Christopher, 2017. "Expropriation risk and FDI in developing countries: Does return of capital dominate return on capital?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 84-107.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    FDI determinants; Outward Foreign Direct Investment; Germany; Bayesian Model Averaging; Variable selection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eec:wpaper:1906. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vicente Esteve (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dsvales.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.