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Real exchange rate misalignments in CEECs: have they hindered growth?

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  • Juan Carlos Cuestas
  • Estefania Mourelle
  • Paulo José Regis

Abstract

We study the impact of exchange rate misalignment on economic activity in nine Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies. Exchange rate misalignments are computed from country-specific long-run exchange rate relationships with determinants suggested by open macroeconomic models such as interest rate differentials or the Balassa-Samuelson effect. There was a clear reduction in misalignments, but this has been reversed to some extent after 2008. Exchange rate overvaluation has a negative impact on economic activity. The effect of misalignments on economic activity seems to be nonlinear, as overvaluation has a stronger effect than undervaluation. Other factors of economic activity, including institutions, also show nonlinear effects

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Cuestas & Estefania Mourelle & Paulo José Regis, 2019. "Real exchange rate misalignments in CEECs: have they hindered growth?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2018-05, Bank of Estonia, revised 23 Jan 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2018-05
    DOI: 10.23656/25045520/052018/0157
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2019. "On the evolution of competitiveness in Central and Eastern Europe: is it broken?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2019-07, Bank of Estonia, revised 29 Oct 2019.
    2. Sabrine Ferjani & Sami Saafi & Ridha Nouira & Christophe Rault, 2022. "The Impacts of the Dollar-Renminbi Exchange Rate Misalignment on the China-United States Commodity Trade: An Asymmetric Analysis," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(3), pages 507-554, September.
    3. Fišera, Boris & Horváth, Roman, 2022. "Are exchange rates less important for trade in a more globalized world? Evidence for the new EU members," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    4. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2019. "Quantile regressions, asymmetric adjustment and crisis: the case of EU real exchange rates," Working Papers 2019/09, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    5. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Mercedes Monfort & Javier Ordoñez, 2019. "Real exchange rates and competitiveness in Central and Eastern Europe: have they fundamentally changed?," Working Papers 2019/12, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    6. Mohammad Hassanzadeh & Shahla Mousavi, 2023. "Real effective exchange rate misalignment and currency crisis in Iran," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real exchange rate misalignments; growth; Central and Eastern European countries; panel smooth transition regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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