Profitability of simple trading strategies exploiting the forward premium bias in foreign exchange markets and the time premium in yield curves
AbstractThis paper focuses on two actively studied inefficiencies in financial markets: the forward premium bias in foreign exchange markets (see, for example, Hansen and Hodrick 1980, Fama 1984, Bansal and Dahlquist 2000, etc.) and the empirical finding that the time expectations theory performs relatively poorly in describing the average shape of yield curves (for a list of papers see, for example, Backus et al. 1998, p 1). The goal of the article is to test whether these two inefficiencies can still offer the possibilities of earning positive and stable excess return for investors. For that purpose, first two very simple trading strategies are tested based on the abovementioned inefficiencies: buying the currencies of the countries with higher short-term interest rates against the currencies of the countries with lower short-term interest rates (i.e. simple FX carry-strategy) and holding long-only positions in longerterm interest rate futures. The results show that the two studied risk premiums are still present in the markets and enable investors to earn excess returns even with simple strategies. Additional tests show that the performance of these simple strategies can be further improved by the inclusion of a risk factor in the foreign exchange carry-strategy and by the addition of monetary policy direction and yield curve steepness filters in the long-only strategy in interest rate futures.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Estonia in its series Bank of Estonia Working Papers with number 2006-04.
Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 10 Oct 2006
Date of revision: 12 Oct 2006
Publication status: published
Postal: Estonia bld. 13, 15095 Tallinn, ESTONIA
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-11-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2006-11-04 (Central Banking)
- NEP-IFN-2006-11-04 (International Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2006-11-04 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2006-11-04 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
- David Backus & Silverio Foresi & Abon Mozumdar & Liuren Wu, 1998.
"Predictable Changes in Yields and Forward Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
6379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
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