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Critical Levels of Debt?

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  • Lenno Uusküla

    ()
    (Bank of Estonia)

  • Peeter Luikmel

    ()
    (Bank of Estonia)

  • Jana Kask

    ()

Abstract

High credit growth in Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) over recent years has sparked interest among many market analysts. Although banking supervision has improved, the continuation of such growth may cause concern about the threat of financial crisis. This paper is written with the aim of analysing the importance of debt factors as a potential cause of financial crises. First, a comparison is conducted of various debt indicators from episodes of crisis in banking across European countries since the 1970s. Second, a probit analysis is used to measure the probability of a crisis. Based on this analysis, it can be claimed that any direct link between debt indicators and financial crises is weak. However, there is some evidence that once the crisis occurs, greater indebtedness lengthens the crisis and raises costs in terms of GDP.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Estonia in its series Bank of Estonia Working Papers with number 2005-3.

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Date of creation: 10 Oct 2005
Date of revision: 10 Oct 2005
Publication status: published
Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2005-03

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Keywords: financial crisis; indebtedness indicators;

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  1. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 1996. "The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context," IDB Publications 5819, Inter-American Development Bank.
  2. Corbo, Vittorio & Hernandez, Leonardo, 1996. "Macroeconomic Adjustment to Capital Inflows: Lessons from Recent Latin American and East Asian Experience," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 11(1), pages 61-85, February.
  3. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," NBER Working Papers 4789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
  5. Daniel C. Hardy & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1999. "Determinants and Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Further Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1.
  6. Adam Honig, 2006. "Is there a link between dollarization and banking crises?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(8), pages 1123-1135.
  7. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/106, International Monetary Fund.
  8. R. Dornbusch, 1984. "External Debt, Budget Deficits and Disequilibrium Exchange Rates," Working papers 347, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  9. Demirguc, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2000. "Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility: A Multivariate Logit Approach," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 287-307, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Martti Randveer & Lenno Uusküla & Liina Kulu, 2012. "The impact of private debt on economic growth," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2011-10, Bank of Estonia, revised 05 Jan 2012.

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