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A long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK (first version)

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Abstract

A new modelling strategy is introduced which provides a practical approach to incorporating long-run structural relationships, suggested by economic theory, in an otherwise unrestricted VAR model. The strategy is applied in the construction of a small quarterly macroeconometric model of the UK, estimated over the period 1965-1995 in eight core variables: domestic and foreign outputs, domestic and foreign prices (both measured relative to oil prices), the nominal effective exchange rate, nominal domestic and foreign interest rates and real money balances. The aim is to develop a core model with a transparent and theoretically coherent foundation. Tests of restrictions on the long-run relations of the model are presented and the dynamic properties of the model are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Yongcheol Shin, 1999. "A long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK (first version)," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 17, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    • Handle: RePEc:edn:esedps:17
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    File URL: http://www.econ.ed.ac.uk/papers/id17_esedps.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Claus Brand & Nuno Cassola, 2004. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(8), pages 817-838.
    2. Mardi Dungey & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-342, December.
    3. A. J. Abbott & G. De Vita, 2002. "Long-run price and income elasticities of demand for Hong Kong exports: a structural cointegrating VAR approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(8), pages 1025-1032.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    long-run structural VAR; a core UK model; macroeconomic modelling; persistence profiles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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