A small quarterly macroeconometric model of the UK is estimated over the period 1965q1=1995q4 in eight core variables: domestic and foreign outputs, domestic and foreign prices (both measured relative to oil prices), the nominal effective exchange rate, nominal domestic and foreign interest rates and real money balances. The model is based on long-run relations from economic theory embodied in an otherwise unrestricted VAR framework. The emphasis of this work is to develop a core model with a transparent and theoretically coherent foundation. Tests of restrictions on the long-run relations of the model are presented. The dynamic properties of the model are illustrated through the use of persistence profiles and generalised impulse responses, which are invariant to the ordering of the variables in the VAR.
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Paper provided by Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh in its series ESE Discussion Papers with number
17.