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Crecimiento Económico Regional en Chile: ¿Convergencia? (Regional economic growth in Chile: convergence?)

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Author Info
Rodrigo Díaz
Patricio Meller ()
Abstract

La economía chilena ha presentado un rápido crecimiento económico durante más de 12 años, pero la evidencia sugiere que a nivel regional éste no ha sido parejo. Este trabajo analiza por qué existen estos distintos ritmos de crecimiento y si en el futuro persistirán o no estas diferencias a través de las regiones. Para este efecto, se examina empíricamente la hipótesis de convergencia, es decir si las regiones más pobres crecen más rápido que las ricas de modo que sus niveles de producto per cápita se acercan; además, esto permite obtener una estimación de los factores determinantes que explican el crecimiento de las regiones. Los resultados econométricos no rechazan la hipótesis de convergencia; sin embargo, las velocidades de convergencia son bastante reducidas, lo que implica que deberían transcurrir muchos años antes de que las regiones pobres alcancen los niveles de las regiones más ricas. Los valores estimados de las velocidades fluctúan entre 1,1% y 2,1% lo que significa que la mitad de la brecha actual de producto per cápita entre regiones pobres y ricas se cubre en un período de entre 35 y 69 años. La estimación econométrica de los factores del crecimiento muestra que las variables que son estadísticamente significativas son inversión extranjera y escolaridad, las cuales tienen un efecto positivo sobre el crecimiento de las regiones. También se realizó un análisis de convergencia sectorial y de convergencia en ingresos y salarios. A nivel sectorial los resultados muestran que en tres sectores – Minería, Industria Manufacturera, Agropecuario Silvícola y Pesca – no existe convergencia y se concluye que son éstos los que explican parte importante de las discrepancias en las dinámicas regionales. Por otra parte, el análisis de convergencia en ingresos y salarios muestra un fenómeno de convergencia más rápido que en términos de producto per cápita, lo que de alguna manera implica que no todas las disparidades en los desempeños económicos de las regiones se traducen en disparidades dentro de la población.

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Paper provided by Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile in its series Documentos de Trabajo with number 180.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:edj:ceauch:180

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