Nonparametric Multiple Change Point Analysis of the Global Financial Crisis
AbstractThis paper presents an application of a recently developed approach by Matteson and James (2012) for the analysis of change points in a data set, namely major financial market indices converted to financial return series. The general problem concerns the inference of a change in the distribution of a set of time-ordered variables. The approach involves the nonparametric estimation of both the number of change points and the positions at which they occur. The approach is general and does not involve assumptions about the nature of the distributions involved or the type of change beyond the assumption of the existence of the absolute moment, for some 2 (0; 2). The estimation procedure is based on hierarchical clustering and the application of both divisive and agglomerative algorithms. The method is used to evaluate the impact of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on the US, French, German, UK, Japanese and Chinese markets, as represented by the S&P500, CAC, DAX, FTSE All Share, Nikkei 225 and Shanghai A share Indices, respectively, from 2003 to 2013. The approach is used to explore the timing and number of change points in the datasets corresponding to the GFC and subsequent European Debt Crisis.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Edith Cowan University, School of Business in its series Working papers with number 2013-02.
Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: May 2013
Date of revision:
Nonparametric Analysis; Multiple Change Points; Cluster Analysis; Global Financial Crisis.;
Other versions of this item:
- David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Robert J. Powell & Abhay K. Singh, 2013. "Nonparametric Multiple Change Point Analysis of the Global Financial Crisis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-072/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- David E Allen & Michael McAleer & Robert J Powell & Abhay K Singh, 2013. "Nonparametric Multiple Change Point Analysis of the Global Financial Crisis," KIER Working Papers 866, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-03-16 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fama, Eugene F, et al, 1969. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, February.
- Loran , CHOLLETTE & Andreas , HEINEN & Alfonso , VALDESOGO, 2008.
"Modelling international financial returns with a multivariate regime switching copula,"
Discussion Papers (ECON - DÃ©partement des Sciences Economiques)
2008011, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
- Lorán Chollete & Andréas Heinen & Alfonso Valdesogo, 2009. "Modeling International Financial Returns with a Multivariate Regime-switching Copula," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 7(4), pages 437-480, Fall.
- Chollete, Loran & Heinen, Andreas & Valdesogo, Alfonso, 2008. "Modeling International Financial Returns with a Multivariate Regime Switching Copula," MPRA Paper 8114, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Chollete, Lorán & Heinen, Andréas & Valdesogo, Alfonso, 2008. "Modeling International Financial Returns with a Multivariate Regime Switching Copula," Discussion Papers 2008/3, Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics.
- CHOLLETE, Loran & HEINEN, Andréas & VALDESOGO, Alfonso, 2008. "Modeling international financial returns with a multivariate regime switching copula," CORE Discussion Papers 2008013, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Michael McAleer & David Allen & Ron Amram, 2011.
"Volatility Spillovers from the Chinese Stock Market to Economic Neighbours,"
KIER Working Papers
805, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
- David E. Allena & Ron Amrama & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Volatility Spillovers from the Chinese Stock Market to Economic Neighbours," Working Papers in Economics 11/42, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Allen, D.E. & McAleer, M.J. & Amran, R., 2011. "Volatility Spillovers from the Chinese Stock Market to Economic Neighbours," Econometric Institute Report EI 2011-44, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
- David E. Allen & Ron Amram & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Volatility Spillovers from the Chinese Stock Market to Economic Neighbours," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de AnÃ¡lisis EconÃ³mico 2011-38, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
- Aas, Kjersti & Czado, Claudia & Frigessi, Arnoldo & Bakken, Henrik, 2009. "Pair-copula constructions of multiple dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 182-198, April.
- HEINEN, Andréas & VALDESOGO, Alfonso, 2009. "Asymmetric CAPM dependence for large dimensions: the Canonical Vine Autoregressive Model," CORE Discussion Papers 2009069, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March.
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1994.
"Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective,"
NBER Working Papers
4643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Makram Talih & Nicolas Hengartner, 2005. "Structural learning with time-varying components: tracking the cross-section of financial time series," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(3), pages 321-341.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996.
"Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Baillie, Bollerslev, Mikkelson FIGARCH results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00009, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- MArdi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzales-Hermosillo & Vance L. Martin & Chrismin Tang, 2008.
"Are Financial Crises Alike?,"
CAMA Working Papers
2008-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Beatriz Mendes & Mariângela Semeraro & Ricardo Leal, 2010. "Pair-copulas modeling in finance," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 193-213, June.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number stoc93-1, October.
- Joe, Harry & Li, Haijun & Nikoloulopoulos, Aristidis K., 2010. "Tail dependence functions and vine copulas," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 252-270, January.
- Smith, Michael & Min, Aleksey & Almeida, Carlos & Czado, Claudia, 2010. "Modeling Longitudinal Data Using a Pair-Copula Decomposition of Serial Dependence," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(492), pages 1467-1479.
- Daniel Berg, 2009. "Copula goodness-of-fit testing: an overview and power comparison," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(7-8), pages 675-701.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Introduction to "Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting"," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 1-10 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, October.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Web Business Team).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.