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Tail Risk for Australian Emerging Market Entities

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Author Info

  • David E Allen

    ()
    (School of Accounting Finance & Economics, Edith Cowan University)

  • Akhmad R. Kramadibrata

    ()
    (School of Accounting Finance & Economics, Edith Cowan University)

  • R. J. Powell

    ()
    (School of Accounting Finance & Economics, Edith Cowan University)

  • Abhay Kumar Singh

    ()
    (School of Accounting Finance & Economics, Edith Cowan University)

Abstract

Whilst the Australian economy is widely considered to have fared better than many of its global counterparts during the Global Financial Crisis, there was nonetheless extreme volatility experienced in Australian financial markets. To understand the extent to which emerging Australia entities were impacted by these extreme events as compared to established entities, this paper compares entities comprising the Emerging Markets Index (EMCOX) to established entities comprising the S&P/ASX 200 Index using four risk metrics. The first two are Value at Risk (VaR) and Distance to Default (DD), which are traditional measures of market and credit risk. The other two focuses on extreme risk in the tail of the distribution and include Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) and Conditional Distance to Default (CDD), the latter metric being unique to the authors, and which applies CVaR techniques to default measurement. We apply these measures both prior to and during the GFC, and find that Emerging Market shares show higher risk for all metrics used, the spread between the emerging and established portfolios narrows during the GFC period and that the default risk spread between the two portfolios is greatest in the tail of the distribution. This information can be important to both investors and lenders in determining share or loan portfolio mix in extreme economic circumstances. Classification-JEL:

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Edith Cowan University, School of Business in its series Working papers with number 2011-07.

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Length: 8 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecu:wpaper:2011-11

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Keywords: Conditional value at risk; Conditional distance to default; Australian emerging markets;

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References

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  1. Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2004. "Default Risk in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 831-868, 04.
  2. Topaloglou, Nikolas & Vladimirou, Hercules & Zenios, Stavros A., 2002. "CVaR models with selective hedging for international asset allocation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1535-1561, July.
  3. David E Allen & Akhmad R. Kramadibrata & R. J. Powell & Abhay Kumar Singh, 2011. "A Quantile Analysis of Default Risk for Speculative and Emerging Companies," Working papers 2011-05, Edith Cowan University, School of Business.
  4. Philip Gharghori & Howard Chan & Robert Faff, 2007. "Are the Fama-French Factors Proxying Default Risk?," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 32(2), pages 223-249, December.
  5. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  6. David E Allen & Akhmad R. Kramadibrata & R. J. Powell & Abhay Kumar Singh, 2011. "Comparing Australian and US Corporate Default Risk using Quantile Regression," Working papers 2011-04, Edith Cowan University, School of Business.
  7. Amadou N. R. Sy & Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2006. "Distance-To-Default in Banking," IMF Working Papers 06/215, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Gordon J. Alexander & Alexandre M. Baptista, 2004. "A Comparison of VaR and CVaR Constraints on Portfolio Selection with the Mean-Variance Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1261-1273, September.
  9. repec:ecu:wpaper:2009-05 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
  11. David E Allen & R.R Boffey & R. J. Powell, 2011. "A Quantile Monte Carlo approach to measuring extreme credit risk," Working papers 2011-02, Edith Cowan University, School of Business.
  12. Charles E. Hyde & David Beggs, 2009. "Style timing with the value spread in Australia," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 49(4), pages 781-798.
  13. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  14. Phillip D. O'Shea & Andrew C. Worthington & David A. Griffiths & Dionigi Gerace, 2008. "Patterns of disclosure and volatility effects in speculative industries: The case of small and mid-cap metals and mining entities on the Australian securities exchange," Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 16(3), pages 261-273, July.
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