India: Election Outcomes and Economic Performance
AbstractIn this paper we provide the first analysis of the relationship of growth to election outcomes in India. Using a comprehensive data set consisting of all candidates contesting the election, we also provide the first systematic quantitative analysis of the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. Our key result is that superior growth performance at the level of the state gives a definite advantage to the candidates of the state incumbent party in the constituencies of that state. Conversely, poor growth performance of a state is associated with poor electoral performance by the candidates of the state incumbent party in the constituencies of that state. We offer two additional results: personal characteristics such as education and wealth have at most a small impact on election outcomes; and, at least in the 2009 election, incumbency at all levels contributed positively to election prospects of a candidate.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University in its series Working Papers with number 9999.
Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2011
Date of revision: Apr 2011
India; Election outcomes; Economic performance; Incumbency;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-03-21 (All new papers)
- NEP-CDM-2012-03-21 (Collective Decision-Making)
- NEP-POL-2012-03-21 (Positive Political Economics)
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