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Skill, Strategy, and Passion: an Empirical Analysis of Soccer

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Author Info
Frederic Palomino (Tilburg University)
Luca Rigotti (Tilburg University)
Aldo Rustichini (Boston University)

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Abstract

Sports provide a natural experiment on individual choices in games with high stakes. We study soccer with a game-theoretic model of a match, and then evaluate the ability of this model to explain actual behavior with data from 2885 matches among professional teams. In our model, the strategy of a team depends on the current state of the game. When the game is tied, both teams attack. A losing team always attacks, while its winning opponent attacks early in the game, but it starts defending as the end of the match nears. We find that teams' skills, current score, and home field advantage are significant explanatory variables of the probability of scoring. We also find that a team which falls behind is relatively more likely to score. A team which is ahead, on the other hand, uses a conservative strategy very early in the match. These results support the main conclusions of our model. They indicate that soccer teams behave consistently with rationality and equilibrium. However, there is significant evidence that emotional factors are roughly as important as rational ones in determining the game's outcome, and they affect the strategic decisions of teams.

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers with number 1822.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1822

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  1. Sahi, S. & Shubik, M., 1988. "A model of a sudden-death field-goal football game as a sequential duel," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 205-215, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Szymanski, Stefan & Smith, Ron, 1997. "The English Football Industry: Profit, Performance and Industrial Structure," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 135-53, January.
  3. Klaassen, F.J.G.M. & Magnus, J.R., 1998. "On the independence and identical distribution of points in tennis," Discussion Paper 53, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  4. Brown, James N & Rosenthal, Robert W, 1990. "Testing the Minimax Hypothesis: A Re-examination of O'Neill's Game Experiment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(5), pages 1065-81, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Palomino, F. & Rigotti, L. & Rustichini, A., 1998. "Skill, strategy and passion : an empirical analysis of soccer," Discussion Paper 129, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kirchsteiger, G. & Rigotti, L. & Rustichini, A., 2000. "Your morals are your moods," Discussion Paper 122, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Carrillo, Juan D, 2006. "Penalty Shoot-Outs: Before or After Extra Time?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5579, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Renneboog, L.D.R. & Vanbrabant, P., 2000. "Share price reactions to sporty performance of soccer clubs listed on the London stock exchange and the AIM," Discussion Paper 19, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  4. Frederic Palomino & Luca Rigotti & Aldo Rustichini, 2000. "Skill, Strategy, and Passion: an Empirical Analysis of Soccer," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1822, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Banerjee, Anurag & Swinnen, Johan & Weersink, Alfons, 2004. "Skating on Thin Ice: Rule Changes and Team Strategies in the NHL," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0401, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Brocas, Isabelle & Carrillo, Juan D, 2002. "Do the 'Three-Point Victory' and 'Golden Goal' Rules Make Soccer More Exciting? A Theoretical Analysis of a Simple Game," CEPR Discussion Papers 3266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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