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Bayesian Clustering Of Similar Multivariate Garch Models

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Author Info
Luc Bauwens
Jeroen Rombouts

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Abstract

We consider the estimation of a large number of GARCH models, say of the order of several hundreds. Especially in the multivariate case, the number of parameters is extremely large. To reduce this number and render estimation feasible, we regroup the series in a small number of clusters. Within a cluster, the series share the same model and the same parameters. Each cluster should therefore contain similar series. What makes the problem interesting is that we do not know a piori which series belongs to which cluster. The overall model is therefore a finite mixture of distributions, where the weights of the components are unknown parameters and each component distribution has its own conditional mean and variance specification. Inference is done by the Bayesian approach, using data augmentation techniques. Illustrations are provided.

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings with number 370.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:nawm04:370

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Related research
Keywords: Large financial systems; Multivariate GARCH; Clustering; Bayesian methods; Gibbs sampling; Finite mixture distributions;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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  1. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Kearney, Colm & Patton, Andrew J, 2000. "Multivariate GARCH Modeling of Exchange Rate Volatility Transmission in the European Monetary System," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 35(1), pages 29-48, February.
  3. BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, SŽbastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen, 2003. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," CORE Discussion Papers 2003031, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:1:p:122-50 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-50, July.
  6. Chib, Siddhartha & Hamilton, Barton H., 2000. "Bayesian analysis of cross-section and clustered data treatment models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 25-50, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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