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High-Frequency Principal Components and Evolution of Liquidity in a Limit Order Market

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Author Info
Konstantin Tyurin
Abstract

The paper applies a popular methodology of competing risks to the analysis of the timing and interaction between the Deutsche Mark/U.S. dollar transactions, quotes, and cancellations in the Reuters D2000-2 electronic brokerage system. Consistently with previous stock market studies, the bid-ask spread and market depth at the best bid and ask quotes are found to be major determinants of limit order market dynamics at ultra-high frequencies. Consistently with the microstructure approach to exchange rate determination, the signed transaction activity appears to be the main factor behind the limit order market dynamics at lower frequencies. Application of principal component analysis to the covariate indices of competing risks identifies five pervasive factors that capture 85% of the Reuters D2000-2 limit order book activity. The multifactor competing risks model substantially improves the quality of short-term probability forecasts for buyer- and seller initiated transactions, relative to popular moving average-type forecasting rules

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings with number 579.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:nasm04:579

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Keywords: foreign exchange limit order market order order flow liquidity competing risks principal component probability forecast

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - Auctions

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  1. Burton Hollifield & Robert A. Miller & patrik Sandas, . "An Empirical Analysis of Limit Order Markets," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 29-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  3. Griffiths, Mark D. & Smith, Brian F. & Turnbull, D. Alasdair S. & White, Robert W., 2000. "The costs and determinants of order aggressiveness," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 65-88, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, A. Craig & Zhang, June, 2002. "Econometric models of limit-order executions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 31-71, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Foucault, Thierry & Kadan, Ohad & Kandel, Eugene, 2001. "Limit Order Book as a Market for Liquidity," CEPR Discussion Papers 2889, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Parlour, Christine A, 1998. "Price Dynamics in Limit Order Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 789-816.
  7. Foucault, Thierry, 1999. "Order flow composition and trading costs in a dynamic limit order market1," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 99-134, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Chakravarty Sugato & Holden Craig W., 1995. "An Integrated Model of Market and Limit Orders," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 213-241, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Huang, Roger D & Stoll, Hans R, 1997. "The Components of the Bid-Ask Spread: A General Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 995-1034.
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    Other versions:
  13. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "High frequency data in financial markets: Issues and applications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 73-114, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Brown, Philip & Thomson, Nathanial & Walsh, David, 1999. "Characteristics of the order flow through an electronic open limit order book," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 335-357, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Hasbrouck, Joel, 2002. "Stalking the "efficient price" in market microstructure specifications: an overview," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 329-339, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Engle, Robert F. & Russell, Jeffrey R., 1997. "Forecasting the frequency of changes in quoted foreign exchange prices with the autoregressive conditional duration model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 187-212, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. C. L. Osler, 2002. "Stop-loss orders and price cascades in currency markets," Staff Reports 150, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  18. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Hamao, Yasushi & Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. "Securities Trading in the Absence of Dealers: Trades and Quotes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 849-78. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Lyons, Richard K, 2001. "New Perspective on FX Markets: Order-Flow Analysis," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 303-20, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Biais, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre & Spatt, Chester, 1995. " An Empirical Analysis of the Limit Order Book and the Order Flow in the Paris Bourse," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1655-89, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Handa, Puneet & Schwartz, Robert A, 1996. " Limit Order Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1835-61, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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