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Market Discipline under Systemic Risk: Evidence from Bank Runs in Emerging Economies

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  • Sergio L. Schmukler
  • Eduardo Levy-Yeyati
  • Maria Soledad Martinez Peria

Abstract

This paper shows that systemic risk exerts a significant impact on the behavior of depositors, sometimes overshadowing their responses to standard bank fundamentals. Systemic risk can affect market discipline both regardless of and through bank fundamentals. First, worsening systemic conditions can directly threaten the value of deposits via dual agency problems. Second, systemic shocks can lead to a future deterioration of fundamentals and affect the exposure to systemic risk, not captured by standard fundamentals. Using data from the recent banking crises in Argentina and Uruguay, we show that market discipline is indeed quite robust once systemic risk is factored in. As the latter increases, the informational content of past fundamentals declines. These episodes also illustrate how few systemic shocks can trigger a run irrespective of ex-ante fundamentals. Overall, the evidence suggests that, in emerging economies, the notion of market discipline needs to account for systemic risk

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings with number 318.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:318

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Keywords: market discipline; idiosyncratic risk; systemic risk; emerging markets; depositor behavior; bank run; banking crises;

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References

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  1. Augusto de la Torre & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2003. "Living and Dying with Hard Pegs: The Rise and Fall of Argentina's Currency Board," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
  2. Charles W. Calomiris & Joseph R. Mason, 2000. "Causes of U.S. Bank Distress During the Depression," NBER Working Papers 7919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Cordella, Tito & Levy Yeyati, Eduardo, 1998. "Public Disclosure and Bank Failures," CEPR Discussion Papers 1886, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Calomiris, Charles W., 1999. "Building an incentive-compatible safety net," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(10), pages 1499-1519, October.
  5. Schumacher, Liliana, 2000. "Bank runs and currency run in a system without a safety net: Argentina and the 'tequila' shock," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 257-277, August.
  6. Sironi, Andrea, 2003. " Testing for Market Discipline in the European Banking Industry: Evidence from Subordinated Debt Issues," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 443-72, June.
  7. Roberto Steiner & Adolfo Barajas, 2000. "Depositor Behavior and Market Discipline in Colombia," IMF Working Papers 00/214, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Gorton, Gary, 1988. "Banking Panics and Business Cycles," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 751-81, December.
  9. María Soledad Martínez-Peria & Sergio Schmukler, 2002. "Do Depositors Punish Banks for Bad Behavior? Market Discipline, Deposit Insurance, and Banking Crises," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (S (ed.), Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 5, pages 143-174 Central Bank of Chile.
  10. Douglas D. Evanoff & Larry D. Wall, 2000. "Subordinated debt as bank capital: a proposal for regulatory reform," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 40-53.
  11. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2004. "Market discipline and deposit insurance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 375-399, March.
  12. Abhiman Das & Saibal Ghosh, 2004. "Market Discipline In The Indian Banking Sector: An Empirical Exploration," Finance 0410020, EconWPA.
  13. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  14. Brenda González-Hermosillo, 1999. "Determinants of Ex-Ante Banking System Distress," IMF Working Papers 99/33, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Flannery, Mark J, 1998. "Using Market Information in Prudential Bank Supervision: A Review of the U.S. Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 273-305, August.
  16. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Maria Soledad Martinez Peria & Sergio Schmukler, 2004. "Market Discipline in Emerging Economies: Beyond Bank Fundamentals," Business School Working Papers marketdiscipline, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  17. Goldberg, Lawrence G. & Hudgins, Sylvia C., 1996. "Response of uninsured depositors to impending S&L failures: Evidence of depositor discipline," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 311-325.
  18. Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "Do depositors punish banks for"bad"behavior? : market discipline in Argentina, Chile, and Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2058, The World Bank.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hasan, Iftekhar & Jackowicz, Krzysztof & Kowalewski , Oskar & Kozlowski , Lukasz, 2013. "Market discipline during crisis: Evidence from bank depositors in transition countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  2. Ghosh, Saibal & Das, Abhiman, 2005. "Market Discipline, Capital Adequacy and Bank Behaviour: Theory and Indian Evidence," MPRA Paper 17398, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2004. "Dollars, Debt and the IFIs: Dedollarizing Multilateral Lending," Business School Working Papers dedollmultlending, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  4. Renzo G. Avesani, 2005. "First," IMF Working Papers 05/232, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Alain Ize, 2005. "Financial De-Dollarization," IMF Working Papers 05/187, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Agustin Villar, 2006. "Is financial stability policy now better placed to prevent systemic banking crises?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The banking system in emerging economies: how much progress has been made?, volume 28, pages 99-122 Bank for International Settlements.
  7. Christoph Trebesch, 2009. "The Cost of Aggressive Sovereign Debt Policies," IMF Working Papers 09/29, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Maria Soledad Martinez Peria & Sergio Schmukler, 2004. "Market Discipline in Emerging Economies: Beyond Bank Fundamentals," Business School Working Papers marketdiscipline, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.

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