Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Importance of Borrowers’ History on Credit Behavior: The Mexican Experience

Contents:

Author Info

  • José L. Negrin
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Credit sharing information mechanisms represent the institutional answer to the asymmetric information problems inherent to credit markets. It is generally accepted that sharing information is beneficial for the participant institutions, however, there are few studies that have measured the impact of past behavioral information on risk analysis. Applying a Probit model to the micro level database gathered by the Mexican Public Registry of Credit Information we find that historical variables, like previous defaults and previous missing payments are highly significant in explaining the probability of default. In particular, having defaulted a loan in the past, increases current loan’s default probability in 30 percentage points. We also find that the longer the borrower has been in the market and the larger the loan, the less likely it is that the current loan will be defaulted on. Additionally, we measure the effects of macroeconomic fluctuations over individual loans’ probability of default; we find that inflation significantly increases it while economic growth reduces it. Our results imply that effort should be exerted to develop more complete databases on individuals’ past behavior. This is particularly relevant in the Latin American context were the credit sharing industry is not very developed

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://repec.org/esLATM04/up.7009.1082047691.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings with number 226.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:226

    Contact details of provider:
    Phone: 1 212 998 3820
    Fax: 1 212 995 4487
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/pastmeetings.asp
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: credit information; probity modelling; Mexico;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Padilla, A.J. & Pagano, M., 1996. "Sharing Default Information as a Borrower Discipline Device," Papers 73, Boston University - Industry Studies Programme.
    2. Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2002. "Information sharing, lending and defaults: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(10), pages 2017-2045, October.
    3. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1976. "Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets: An Essay on the Economics of Imperfect Information," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 630-49, November.
    4. DANIEL B. KLElN, 1992. "Promise Keeping In The Great Society: A Model Of Credit Information Sharing," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 117-136, 07.
    5. Padilla, A.J. & Pagano, M., 1994. "Endogenous Communication Among Lenders and Entrepreneurial Incentives," Papers 9407, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
    6. Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 1991. "Information Sharing in Credit Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 579, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Negrin, José Luis, 2001. "Mecanismos para compartir información crediticia. Evidencia internacional y la experiencia mexicana," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(271), pages 405-466, julio-sep.
    8. Kallberg, Jarl G. & Udell, Gregory F., 2003. "The value of private sector business credit information sharing: The US case," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 449-469, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:226. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.