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Forward looking information in S&P 500 options

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Author Info
Scott I White
Ralf Becker
Adam E Clements

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Abstract

Implied volatility generated from observed option prices reflects market expectations of future volatility. This paper determines whether or not, implied volatilities, and hence market expectations, contain any genuinely forward looking information not already captured by historical information. Historical information is represented by current levels of volatility and model based forecasts using a variety of volatility models. The VIX index, constructed from S&P 500 options data is the measure of implied volatility used in this study. Once accounting for historical information, VIX appears to contain no forward looking information regarding future S&P 500 volatility

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings with number 233.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:ausm04:233

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Related research
Keywords: Implied volatility; information; volatility forecasts; volatility models; realized volatility;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999. "The Distribution of Exchange Rate Volatility," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-059, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999. "(Understanding, Optimizing, Using and Forecasting) Realized Volatility and Correlation," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-061, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-2.

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