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Institutions and Demographic Responses to Shocks: Wurttemberg, 1634-1870

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Guinnane, Timothy W. (Yale U)
Ogilvie, Sheilagh (U of Cambridge)

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Abstract

Simple Malthusian models remain an important tool for understanding pre-modern demographic systems and their connection to the economy. But most recent literature has lost sight of the institutional context for demographic behavior that lay at the heart of Malthus's own analysis. This paper estimates a short-run version of a Malthusian model for two Wurttemberg communities from 1646 to 1870. Wurttemberg differed institutionally from the northwest European societies analyzed in previous studies. The impact of institutional differences shows clearly in differing demographic reactions to economic shocks. Mortality was less sensitive to shocks than one would expect, while nuptiality was especially sensitive.

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Paper provided by Yale University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 44.

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Date of creation: Mar 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:yaleco:44

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J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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  1. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Michael Anderson & Ronald Lee, 2002. "Malthus in state space: Macro economic-demographic relations in English history, 1540 to 1870," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 195-220. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Sheilagh Ogilvie, 2004. "Guilds, efficiency, and social capital: evidence from German proto-industry," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 57(2), pages 286-333, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Oded Galor & David N. Weil, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Shiue, Carol H., 2005. "From political fragmentation towards a customs union: Border effects of the German Zollverein, 1815 to 1855," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(02), pages 129-162, August. [Downloadable!]
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