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Milton Friedman's Stance: The Methodology of Causal Realism

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Hoover, Kevin D. (U of California, Davis)

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Abstract

Milton Friedman is usually regarded as an instrumentalist on the basis of his infamous claim that economic theories are to be judged by their predictions and not by the realism of their assumptions. This interpretation sits oddly with Friedman's empirical work--e.g., Friedman and Schwartz's monetary history--and his explicit rejection of theories of the business cycle that, while based on accurate correlations, nevertheless do not make economic sense. In this paper, I try to reconcile Friedman's methodological writings with his practices as an empirical economist by, first, taking his roots in Alfred Marshall seriously and, second, by taking the methodological implications of his empirical work seriously. Friedman dislikes the word "cause". Nevertheless, appearances to the contrary notwithstanding, Friedman is best understood as a causal realist--that is, one who understands the object of scientific inquiry as the discovery through empirical investigation of the true causal mechanisms underlying observable phenomena.

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Paper provided by University of California at Davis, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 06-6.

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Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:ucdeco:06-6

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  1. Tobin, James, 1970. "Money and Income: Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 301-17, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Frazer, William J, Jr & Boland, Lawrence A, 1983. "An Essay on the Foundations of Friedman's Methodology," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 129-44, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. D. Wade Hands, 2003. "Did Milton Friedman's methodology license the Formalist Revolution?," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 507-520, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Kevin Hoover, 2004. "Lost Causes," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 149-164, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Khan, Haider, 2005. "Friedman’s Methodology: A Puzzle and A Proposal for Generating Useful Debates through Causal Comparisons," MPRA Paper 7024, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hoover, Kevin D., 2005. "Doctor Keynes: Economic Theory in a Diagnostic Science," Working Papers 06-3, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Khan, Haider, 2008. "Friedman’s Methodology: A Puzzle and A Proposal for Generating Useful Debates through Causal Comparisons (with a postscript on positive vs. normative theories)," MPRA Paper 7458, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2008. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Bruno Chiarini, 2008. "Milton Friedman: la moneta, il metodo e la politica," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 98(1), pages 39-56, January-F. [Downloadable!]
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