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Economic Theory and Causal Inference

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Hoover, Kevin D. (U of California, Davis)

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Abstract

Post-Walrasian economics is not a doctrine, but a slogan announcing that something has to change. In this paper, I explore a conservative version of post-Walrasian economics that can be summarized as back to the methodology of Alfred Marshall's--particularly to his essay, "The Present Position of Economics" (1885). The Walrasian approach is a bottom-up, engineering vision: economics must be built on secure foundations of primitive theory, like a building. Marshall's approach is a top-down, archaeological vision: the structure of economics must be uncovered starting with the observable facts and empirically determining what lies behind them. Marshall's methodology places the relationship between theory and empirical tools on center stage. The dominant tools of macroeconometrics are the vector autoregression (VAR) and calibration techniques, which were developed as reactions to two nearly simultaneous reactions to the Cowles-Commission program in econometrics: the Lucas critique and the Sims critique. The various strands of macroeconometrics are examined through the competing Walrasian and Marshallian visions of the role of theory in econometrics. A suggestion for a truly Marshallian (and post-Walrasian) econometrics is then offered.

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Paper provided by University of California at Davis, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 06-4.

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Date of creation: Sep 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:ucdeco:06-4

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  1. Neil R. Ericsson & John S. Irons, 1995. "The Lucas critique in practice: theory without measurement," International Finance Discussion Papers 506, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Testing for causality : A personal viewpoint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 329-352, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16. [Downloadable!]
  5. Hoover, Kevin & Demiralp, Selva, 2003. "Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression," Working Papers 03-3, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. James J. Heckman, 2000. "Causal Parameters And Policy Analysis In Economics: A Twentieth Century Retrospective," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 45-97, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hoover, Kevin & Jorda, Oscar, 2001. "Measuring Systematic Monetary Policy," Working Papers 06-10, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," Working Paper 2003-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 2004. "Truth and Robustness in Cross-country Growth Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(5), pages 765-798, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Carlo Favero & F. David Hendry, 1992. "Testing the lucas critique: A review," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 265-306. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Spanos, Aris, 1995. "On theory testing in econometrics : Modeling with nonexperimental data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 189-226, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Cochrane, John H., 1998. "What do the VARs mean? Measuring the output effects of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 277-300, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Sargent, Thomas J. & Wallace, Neil, 1976. "Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 169-183, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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