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Time-Varying Uncertainty and the Credit Channel

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Author Info
Salyer, Kevin (U of California, Davis)
Lee, Gabriel (U of Regensburg)

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Abstract

We extend the Carlstrom and Fuerst (1997) agency cost model of business cycles by including time varying uncertainty in the technology shocks that affect capital production. We first demonstrate that standard linearization methods can be used to solve the model yet second moments enter the economy's equilibrium policy functions. We then demonstrate that an increase in uncertainty causes, ceteris paribus, a fall in investment supply. A second key result is that time varying uncertainty results in countercyclical bankruptcy rates--a finding which is consistent with the data and opposite the result in Carlstrom and Fuerst. Third, we show that persistence of uncertainty affects both quantitatively and qualitatively the behavior of the economy. However, the shocks to uncertainty imply a quantitatively small role for uncertainty over the business cycle.

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Paper provided by University of California at Davis, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 06-1.

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Date of creation: Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:ucdeco:06-1

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 2000. "Inflation and Welfare," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 247-274, March.
  3. Collard, Fabrice & Juillard, Michel, 2001. "A Higher-Order Taylor Expansion Approach to Simulation of Stochastic Forward-Looking Models with an Application to a Nonlinear Phillips Curve Model," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2-3), pages 125-39, June. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alderson, Michael J. & Betker, Brian L., 1995. "Liquidation costs and capital structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 45-69, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2001. "Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation to the Policy Function," CEPR Discussion Papers 2963, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Dorofeenko, Viktor & Lee, Gabriel S. & Salyer, Kevin D., 2005. "Agency Costs and Investment Behavior," Economics Series 182, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
  2. Francisco Covas & Wouter J. den Haan, 2006. "The Role of Debt and Equity Finance over the Business Cycle," Working Papers 06-45, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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