Anticipated Utility and Rational Expectations as Approximations of Bayesian Decision Making
AbstractFor a Markov decision problem in which unknown transition probabilities serve as hidden state variables, we study the quality of two approximations to the decision rule of a Bayesian who each period updates his subjective distribution over the transition probabilities by Bayes' law. The first is the usual rational expectations approximation that assumes that the decision maker knows the transition probabilities. The second approximation is a version of Kreps' (1998) anticipated utility model in which decision makers update using Bayes' law but optimize in a way that is myopic with respect to their updating of probabilities. For a range of consumption smoothing examples, the anticipated utility approximation outperforms the rational expectations approximation. The anticipated utility and Bayesian models augment market prices of risk relative to the rational expectations approximation.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of California at Davis, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 05-23.
Date of creation: Mar 2005
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- Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Anticipated Utility And Rational Expectations As Approximations Of Bayesian Decision Making," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(1), pages 185-221, 02.
- Tim W. Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Anticipated Utility and Rational Expectations as Approximations of Bayesian Decision Making," Working Papers 523, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
- D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
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