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Productivity, Tradability, and the Long-Run Price Puzzle

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Author Info
Bergin, Paul (U of California, Davis)
Taylor, Alan (U of California, Davis)
Glick, Reuven (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

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Abstract

Long-run cross-country price data exhibit a puzzle. Today, richer countries exhibit higher price levels than poorer countries, a stylized fact usually attributed to the Balassa- Samuelson effect. But looking back fifty years, this effect virtually disappears from the data. What is often assumed to be a universal property is actually quite specific to recent times, emerging a half century ago and growing steadily over time. What might potentially explain this historical pattern? We develop an updated Balassa-Samuelson model inspired by recent developments in trade theory, where a continuum of goods are differentiated by productivity, and where tradability is endogenously determined. Firms experiencing productivity gains are more likely to become tradable and crowd out firms not experiencing productivity gains. As a result the usual Balassa-Samuelson assumption--that productivity gains be concentrated in the traded goods sector--emerges endogenously, and the Balassa-Samuelson effect on relative price levels likewise evolves gradually over time.

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Paper provided by University of California at Davis, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 05-11.

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Date of creation: Jun 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:ucdeco:05-11

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
N70 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - General, International, or Comparative

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  1. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Takatoshi Ito & Peter Isard & Steven Symansky, 1999. "Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rate: An Overview of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Development Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues (NBER-EASE volume 7), pages 109-132 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Jaewoo Lee, 2005. "Transfer Effect in National Price Levels," International Finance 0512004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Josip Tica & Ivo Družić, 2006. "The Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect: A Survey of Empirical Evidence," EFZG Working Papers Series 0607, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb. [Downloadable!]
  3. Maria Bas & Ivan Ledezma, 2006. "Trade liberalization and heterogeneous within-firm productivity improvements," PSE Working Papers 2006-36, PSE (Ecole normale supérieure), revised Jun 2008. [Downloadable!]
  4. Isabelle Mejean, 2006. "Can Firms’ Location Decisions Counteract the Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," Working Papers 2006-12, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Karine Gente & Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma, 2008. "Net Foreign Assets, Productivity and Real Exchange Rates in Constrained Economies," Discussion Papers 2008-17, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
  6. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley & Iain Bain, 2007. "China'S Real Exchange Rate Puzzle," CAMA Working Papers 2007-14, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain, 2007. "Appreciating the Renminbi," Departmental Working Papers 2007-09, Australian National University, Economics RSPAS. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Paul R. Bergin & Reuven Glick, 2005. "Tradability, productivity, and understanding international economic integration," Working Paper Series 2005-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Carla Massidda & Paolo Mattana, 2008. "Regional productivity and relative prices dynamics: the case of Italy," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 945-966, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Mohsin S. Khan & Ehsan U. Choudhri, 2004. "Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Are Balassa-Samuelson Effects Present?," IMF Working Papers 04/188, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Paul R. Bergin & Ching-Yi Lin, 2008. "Exchange Rate Regimes and the Extensive Margin of Trade," NBER Working Papers 14126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Yu Sheng & Xinpeng Xu, 2009. "Real Exchange Rate, Productivity and Labor Market Rigidities," Working Papers 092009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  13. Ozlem Inanc & Marios Zachariadis, 2006. "International Price Dispersion and the Direction of Trade," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 2-2006, University of Cyprus Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Ehsan U. Choudhri & Lawrence L. Schembri, 2009. "Productivity, the Terms of Trade, and the Real Exchange Rate: The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis Revisited," Working Papers 09-22, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  15. Ronald MacDonald & Cezary Wójcik, 2006. "Catching-up, Inflation Differentials and Credit Booms in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union: Some Implications for EMU and new EU Member States," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  16. Enrique R. Casares, 2007. "Productivity, Structural Change in Employment and Economic Growth," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 22(2), pages 335-355. [Downloadable!]
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