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Time-Varying Uncertainty and the Credit Channel

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  • Dorofeenko, Viktor

    (Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna)

  • Lee, Gabriel S.

    (Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna)

  • Salyer, Kevin D.

    (U of California, Davis)

Abstract

We extend the Carlstrom and Fuerst (1997) agency cost model of business cycles by including time varying uncertainty in the technology shocks that affect capital production. We first demonstrate that standard linearization methods can be used to solve the model yet second moment effects still influence equilibrium characteristics. The effects of the persistence of uncertainty are then analyzed. Our primary findings fall into four categories. First, it is demonstrated that uncertainty affects the level of the steady-state of the economy so that welfare analyses of uncertainty that focus entirely on the variability of output (or consumption) will understate the true costs of uncertainty. A second key result is that time varying uncertainty results in countercyclical bankruptcy rates--a finding which is consistent with the data and opposite the result in Carlstrom and Fuerst. Third, we show that persistence of uncertainty affects both quantitatively and qualitatively the behavior of the economy. Finally, we demonstrate that the magnitude of changes in uncertainty affecting the economy could be quite large; the implication is that second moment effects may be an important determinant of macroeconomic behavior.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of California at Davis, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 02-9.

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Date of creation: Nov 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:ucdeco:02-9

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  1. Simon Gilchrist & John C. Williams, 1998. "Putty-Clay and Investment: A Business Cycle Analysis," NBER Working Papers 6812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Kevin Salyer & Kevin Hoover, 2003. "Technology Shocks Or Colored Noise? Why Real-Business-Cycle Models Cannot Explain Actual Business Cycles," Working Papers 9729, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  3. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 1996. "Agency costs, net worth, and business fluctuations: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Working Paper 9602, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  4. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2005. "Optimal Inflation Stabilization in a Medium-Scale Macroeonomic Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 5424, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Collard, Fabrice & Juillard, Michel, 2001. "A Higher-Order Taylor Expansion Approach to Simulation of Stochastic Forward-Looking Models with an Application to a Nonlinear Phillips Curve Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 17(2-3), pages 125-39, June.
  6. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1999. "New Directions for Stochastic Open Economy Models," NBER Working Papers 7313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation to the Policy Function," NBER Technical Working Papers 0282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Greenwood, J. & Hercowitz, Z. & Krusell, P., 1996. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," RCER Working Papers 420, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  9. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  10. Russell Cooper & Joao Ejarque, 1994. "Financial Intermediation and Aggregate Fluctuations: A Quantative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 4819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 2000. "Inflation and Welfare," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 247-274, March.
  12. Alderson, Michael J. & Betker, Brian L., 1995. "Liquidation costs and capital structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 45-69, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Francisco Covas & Wouter Denhaan, 2006. "The role of debt and equity finance over the business cycle," 2006 Meeting Papers 407, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Gregory Clark & Neil Cummins, 2010. "Malthus to Modernity: England’s First Fertility Transition, 1760-1800," Working Papers 1013, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  3. Kevin D. Salyer & Gabriel S. Lee & Victor Dorofeenko, 2010. "Risk Shocks and Housing Markets," 2010 Meeting Papers 451, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Viktor Dorofeenko & Gabriel S. Lee & Kevin D. Salyer, 2011. "Rationale Erklärungen für Immobilienpreis‐Bubbles: Die Auswirkungen von Risikoschocks auf die Wohnimmobilienpreisvolatilität und die Volatilität von Investitionen in Wohnimmobilien," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(2), pages 151-169, 05.
  5. Dorofeenko, Viktor & Lee, Gabriel S. & Salyer, Kevin D., 2005. "Agency Costs and Investment Behavior," Economics Series 182, Institute for Advanced Studies.

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