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Why the Welfare Looks Like a Free Lunch

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Author Info
Lindert, Peter (U of California, Davis)

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Abstract

The econometric consensus on the effects of social spending confirms a puzzle we confront in the raw data: There is no clear net GDP cost of high tax-based social spending on GDP, despite a tradition of assuming that such costs are large. This paper offers five keys to this free lunch puzzle. First, it shows conventional analysis imagines costly forms of the welfare state that no welfare states have ever practiced. Second, better tests confirm that the usual tales imagine costs that would be felt only if policy had strayed out of sample, away from any actual historical experience. Third, the tax strategies of high-budget welfare states are more pro-growth and less progressive than has been realized, and more so than in free-market OECD countries. Fourth, the work disincentives of social transfers are so designed as to shield GDP from much reduction if any. Finally, we return to some positive growth and well-being benefits of the high welfare budgets, and then pose theoretical reasons why democracy may exert a crude form of cost control.

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Paper provided by University of California at Davis, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 02-7.

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Date of creation: Nov 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:ucdeco:02-7

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  4. David Carey & Harry Tchilinguirian, 2000. "Average Effective Tax Rates on Capital, Labour and Consumption," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 258, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Bruce D. Meyer, 1995. "Lessons from the U.S. Unemployment Insurance Experiments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 91-131, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Agell, Jonas & Lindh, Thomas & Ohlsson, Henry, 1997. "Growth and the public sector: A critical review essay," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 33-52, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Uwe E. Reinhardt, 2000. "Health Care for the Aging Baby Boom: Lessons from Abroad," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 71-83, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Stuart, Charles E, 1984. "Welfare Costs per Dollar of Additional Tax Revenue in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 352-62, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Razin, Assaf & Tesar, Linda L., 1994. "Effective tax rates in macroeconomics: Cross-country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-323, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Bird, Richard M. & Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge & Torgler, Benno, 2008. "Tax Effort in Developing Countries and High Income Countries: The Impact of Corruption, Voice and Accountability," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(1), pages 55-71, March. [Downloadable!]
  2. Richard Bird & Jorge Martinez-Vazquezb & Benno Torgler, 2007. "Tax Effort: The Impact of corruption, Voice and Accountability," International Tax Program Papers 0702 Classification - JEL, International Tax Program, Institute for International Business, Joseph L. Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Davis, Steven J. & Henrekson, Magnus, 2004. "Tax Effects on Work Activity, Industry Mix and Shadow Economy Size: Evidence from Rich-Country Comparisons," Ratio Working Papers 57, The Ratio Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Richard M. bird, 2003. "Taxation in Latin America: Reflections on Sustainability and the Balance between Equity and Efficiency," International Tax Program Papers 0306, International Tax Program, Institute for International Business, Joseph L. Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto. [Downloadable!]
  5. Richard M. Bird & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Benno Torgler, 2004. "Societal Institutions and Tax Effort in Developing Countries," International Tax Program Papers 0411, International Tax Program, Institute for International Business, Joseph L. Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto. [Downloadable!]
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