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The Announcement Effect: Evidence from Open Market Desk Data

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Author Info
Demiralp, Selva (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve)
Jorda, Oscar (U of California, Davis)

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Abstract

This paper investigates the ability of the Federal Reserve to manipulate the overnight rate without open market operations (which Demiralp and Jorda (2000) term the announcement effect), using high-frequency, open-market-desk data. Using similar data, Hamilton (1997) takes advantage of forecast errors in the Treasury balance to compute the elasticity of the federal funds rate to these errors and thus to obtain a measure of the liquidity effect. Similarly, one can view daily deviations of the federal funds rate from target as forecast errors in the reserve need (see Taylor, 2000). By analyzing the manner and the type of operation the Fed uses to maintain the federal funds rate close to its targeted value and by observing the pattern of operations on the days surrounding a change in this target, we provide evidence of the announcement effect. Furthermore, we show that the discipline of the FOMC schedule dictates, not only the process of expectations formation in the overnight rate, but also the price adjustment process of term rates.

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Paper provided by University of California at Davis, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 01-4.

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Date of creation: Jun 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:ucdeco:01-4

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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  1. Feinman, Joshua N, 1993. "Estimating the Open Market Desk's Daily Reaction Function," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 231-47, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Alessandro Prati & Leonardo Bartolini & Giuseppe Bertola, . "Day-To-Day Monetary Policy and the Volatility of the Federal Funds Interest Rate," IMF Working Papers 00/206, International Monetary Fund.
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  3. Hamilton, James D, 1997. "Measuring the Liquidity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 80-97, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Cheryl L. Edwards, 1997. "Open market operations in the 1990s," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Nov, pages 859-874. [Downloadable!]
  5. James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, 2000. "A Model for the Federal Funds Rate Target," NBER Working Papers 7847, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. R. Alton Gilbert, 1985. "Operating procedures for conducting monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Feb. [Downloadable!]
  7. Woodford, Michael, 2000. "Monetary Policy in a World without Money," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 229-60, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. John B. Taylor, 2001. "Expectations, open market operations, and changes in the federal funds rate," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 33-58. [Downloadable!]
  9. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets," Staff Reports 99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Daniel L. Thornton, 2001. "Identifying the liquidity effect at the daily frequency," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 59-82. [Downloadable!]
  11. Peter R. Fisher & Gerald D. Cohen, 1996. "Domestic open market operations during 1996," Annual Report Domestic Open Market Operations, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  12. Marvin Goodfriend & William Whelpley, . "Federal funds," Monograph, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, number 1998f. [Downloadable!]
  13. H. Robert Heller, 1988. "Implementing monetary policy," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jul, pages 419-429.
  14. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Richard G. Anderson & Robert H. Rasche, 2001. "Retail sweep programs and bank reserves, 1994-1999," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 51-72. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Furfine, Craig H., 2000. "Interbank payments and the daily federal funds rate," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 535-553, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Selva Demiralp & Òscar Jordà, 2001. "The Pavlovian response of term rates to Fed announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  18. Peter R. Fisher & Spence Hilton, 1999. "Highlights of domestic open market operations during 1998," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Apr, pages 217-235. [Downloadable!]
  19. Guthrie, Graeme & Wright, Julian, 2000. "Open mouth operations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 489-516, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Leonardo Bartolini & Alessandro Prati, 2003. "The execution of monetary policy: a tale of two central banks," Staff Reports 165, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Baeriswyl, Romain & Cornand, Camille, 2007. "Can Opacity of a Credible Central Bank Explain Excessive Inflation?," Discussion Papers in Economics 1376, University of Munich, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Andreas Schabert, . "Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks with Changes in Open Market Operations," Working Papers 2003_10, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Jun 2003. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2004. "Taking stock: monetary policy transmission to equity markets," Working Paper Series 354, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Gabriel Pérez Quirós & Jorge Sicilia, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Banco de España Working Papers 0229, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Seth B. Carpenter & Selva Demiralp, 2006. "Anticipation of Monetary Policy and Open Market Operations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Selva Demiralp, 2001. "Monetary policy in a changing world: rising role of expectations and the anticipation effect," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Aleksandar Murdzhev & Marc Tomljanovich, 2006. "What Color is Alan Greenspan's Tie? How Central Bank Policy Announcements Have Changed Financial Markets," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 571-593, Fall. [Downloadable!]
  10. Sahminan Sahminan, 2008. "Effectiveness of monetary policy communication in Indonesia and Thailand," BIS Working Papers 262, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  11. Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central Bank Communication and Policy Effectiveness," NBER Working Papers 11898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Transparency, Disclosure, and the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 179-225, March. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Daniel L. Thornton, 2007. "Open market operations and the federal funds rate," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 549-570. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Paolo Angelini, 2002. "Liquidity and Announcement Effects in the Euro Area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 451, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2002. "Interdependence between the euro area and the US: what role for EMU?," Working Paper Series 200, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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