A state which does not desire an arms race may nevertheless acquire new weapons if it believes another state will acquire them. If each state assigns some arbitrarily small probability to the event that the other state has a dominant strategy to acquire more weapons, then a multiplier effect appears, and the unique Bayesian Nash equilibrium involves an arms race with probability one. However, if the prior probability that a player is a dominant strategy type is sufficiently small, then there is an equilibrium of the cheap-talk extension of the arms race game where the probability of an arms race is close to zero.
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Sandeep Baliga & Stephen Morris, 2000.
"Coordination, Spillovers, and Cheap Talk,"
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1301, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
[Downloadable!]
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Cited by: (explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Helmut Bester & Karl Wärneryd, 2006.
"Conflict and the Social Contract,"
Discussion Papers
94, SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
[Downloadable!]
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Robert J. Aumann & Sergiu Hart, 2002.
"Long Cheap Talk,"
Discussion Paper Series
dp284, Center for Rationality and Interactive Decision Theory, Hebrew University, Jerusalem, revised Nov 2002.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Robert J. Aumann & Sergiu Hart, 2003.
"Long Cheap Talk,"
Econometrica,
Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1619-1660, November.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
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