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Does Wage Rigidity Make Firms Riskier? Evidence from Long-Horizon Return Predictability

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  • Favilukis, Jack

    (London School of Economics and Political Science)

  • Lin, Xiaoji

    (OH State University)

Abstract

We explore the relationship between sticky wages and risk. Like operating leverage, sticky wages are a source of risk for the firm. Firms, industries, or times with especially high or rigid wages are especially risky. If wages are sticky then wage growth should negatively forecast future stock returns because falling wages are associated with even bigger falls in output, and increases in operating leverage. Indeed, we find this to be the case in aggregate data, and in industry data. Furthermore, we find that industries with higher wage rigidity have a more negative relationship between wages and returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Favilukis, Jack & Lin, Xiaoji, 2012. "Does Wage Rigidity Make Firms Riskier? Evidence from Long-Horizon Return Predictability," Working Paper Series 2012-19, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2012-19
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    Cited by:

    1. de Ridder, M. & Pfajfar, D., 2017. "Policy Shocks and Wage Rigidities: Empirical Evidence from Regional Effects of National Shocks," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1717, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Xiaolan Zhang, 2014. "Who Bears Firm-Level Risk? Implications for Cash Flow Volatility," 2014 Meeting Papers 184, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Liang, H. & Renneboog, Luc & Vansteenkiste, Cara, 2017. "Corporate Employee-Engagement and Merger Outcomes," Other publications TiSEM ab3f7a1d-a202-48b7-9c75-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Gintautas Radvila & Violeta Šilingienė, 2020. "Designing Remuneration Systems of Organizations for Sustainable HRM: The Core Characteristics of an Emerging Field," International Journal of Human Resource Studies, Macrothink Institute, vol. 10(2), pages 252279-2522, December.
    5. Guo, Hui & Jiang, Xiaowen, 2021. "Aggregate Distress Risk and Equity Returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    6. Rong, Yuen & Tian, Cunzhi & Li, Lifang & Zheng, Xinwei, 2020. "Labor hiring and stock return: A model and new evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    7. Sylvain, Serginio, 2014. "Does Human Capital Risk Explain The Value Premium Puzzle?," MPRA Paper 54551, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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