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Technical Progress and Early Retirement

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  • Ahituv, Avner

    (Hebrew U of Jerusalem)

  • Zeira, Joseph

    (Hebrew U of Jerusalem, Harvard U and CEPR)

Abstract

This paper claims that technical progress induces early retirement of older workers. It presents a model where human capital is technology specific, so that technical progress erodes some existing human capital. This affects mostly older workers, who have a smaller incentive to learn the new technology, since their career horizon is shorter. Hence, they tend to work less. We find support to this erosion effect in HRS data, which shows that retirement and unemployment of older workers are positively related to technical progress in their sectors. Unlike the effect across sectors, the model is ambiguous about the aggregate effect of technical progress on labor supply of older workers. While in sectors with many innovations it falls due to the erosion effect, in other sectors it increases due to higher wages. To examine which effect dominates we run a time series test using US data and find that the rate of average technical progress reduces aggregate labor force participation by the old. Namely, the erosion effect dominates.

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Paper provided by Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government in its series Working Paper Series with number rwp02-007.

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Date of creation: Feb 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp02-007

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  1. Boucekkine, Raouf & de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 2000. "Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends and Endogenous Growth," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2000007, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
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  16. repec:fth:harver:1487 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Peracchi, Franco & Welch, Finis, 1994. "Trends in Labor Force Transitions of Older Men and Women," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(2), pages 210-42, April.
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