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A Phillips curve for the euro area

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  • Ball, Laurence
  • Mazumder, Sandeep

Abstract

This paper asks whether a textbook Phillips curve can explain the behavior of core inflation in the euro area. A critical feature of the analysis is that we measure core inflation with the weighted median of industry inflation rates, which is less volatile than the common measure of inflation excluding food and energy prices. We find that fluctuations in core inflation since the creation of the euro are well explained by three factors: expected inflation (as measured by surveys of forecasters); the output gap (as measured by the OECD); and the pass-through of movements in headline inflation. Our specification resolves the puzzle of a “missing disinflation” after the Great Recession, and it diminishes the puzzle of a “missing inflation” during the recent economic recovery. JEL Classification: E31, E32

Suggested Citation

  • Ball, Laurence & Mazumder, Sandeep, 2020. "A Phillips curve for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2354, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202354
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Moretti, Laura & Onorante, Luca & Zakipour-Saber, Shayan, 2019. "Phillips curves in the euro area," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
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    13. Bobeica, Elena & Sokol, Andrej, 2019. "Drivers of underlying inflation in the euro area over time: a Phillips curve perspective," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 4.
    14. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Osbat, Chiara, 2017. "Low inflation in the euro area: Causes and consequences," Occasional Paper Series 181, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vahagn Galstyan, 2021. "Expectations, unemployment and inflation: An empirical investigation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 298-312, December.
    2. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Bruha & Petr Kral & Martin Motl & Jaromir Tonner, 2022. "Assessment of the Nature of the Pandemic Shock: Implications for Monetary Policy," Research and Policy Notes 2022/01, Czech National Bank.
    3. Siena Daniele, & Zago Riccardo., 2021. "Job Polarization and the Flattening of the Price Phillips Curve," Working papers 819, Banque de France.
    4. Combes, Jean-Louis & Lesuisse, Pierre, 2022. "Inflation and unemployment, new insights during the EMU accession," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 124-142.
    5. Mai Dao & Allan Dizioli & Chris Jackson & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2023. "Unconventional Fiscal Policy in Times of High Inflation," IMF Working Papers 2023/178, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Antonio Ribba, 2020. "Is the unemployment–inflation trade‐off still alive in the Euro Area and its member countries? It seems so," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(9), pages 2393-2410, September.
    7. Laurence M. Ball & Mr. Daniel Leigh & Ms. Prachi Mishra, 2022. "Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era," IMF Working Papers 2022/208, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Claudio Morana, 2022. "Euro area inflation and a new measure of core inflation," Working Paper series 22-14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Nov 2023.
    9. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2023. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 364-390.
    10. Johannes Schuffels & Clemens Kool & Lenard Lieb & Tom van Veen, 2022. "Is the Slope of the Euro Area Phillips Curve Steeper than It Seems? Heterogeneity and Identification," CESifo Working Paper Series 10103, CESifo.
    11. Júlia Király, 2020. "Hungary and Other Emerging EU Countries in the Financial Storm," Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, Springer, number 978-3-030-49544-2, June.
    12. Peter Bofinger, 2020. "Kommt nach der Corona-Krise die Inflation?," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(11), pages 825-829, November.
    13. Aliu, Florin & Mulaj, Isa & Matoshi, Ruzhdi, 2021. "Phillips Curve in Self-management Socialism of Yugoslavia," MPRA Paper 113920, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Dovì, Max-Sebastian & Koester, Gerrit & Nickel, Christiane, 2021. "Addressing the endogeneity of slack in Phillips Curves," Working Paper Series 2619, European Central Bank.
    15. Antonio Ribba, 2022. "Monetary Policy Shocks in Open Economies and the Inflation Unemployment Trade-Off: The Case of the Euro Area," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-12, March.
    16. Lehner, Lukas & Ramskogler, Paul & Riedl, Aleksandra, 2022. "Begging thy coworker – Labor market dualization and the slow-down of wage growth in Europe," INET Oxford Working Papers 2022-04, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    17. Nataliia Ostapenko, 2022. "Do output gap estimates improve inflation forecasts in Slovakia?," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2022, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    18. Philipp F. M. Baumann & Enzo Rossi & Alexander Volkmann, 2020. "What Drives Inflation and How: Evidence from Additive Mixed Models Selected by cAIC," Papers 2006.06274, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    core inflation; euro area; median inflation; missing disinflation; missing inflation; Phillips curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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