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Expectations-driven liquidity traps: implications for monetary and fiscal policy

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  • Nakata, Taisuke
  • Schmidt, Sebastian

Abstract

We study optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a New Keynesian model where occasional declines in agents’ confidence can give rise to persistent liquidity trap episodes. Unlike in the case of fundamental-driven liquidity traps, there is no straightforward recipe for mitigating the welfare costs and the systematic inflation shortfall associated with expectations-driven liquidity traps. Raising the inflation target or appointing an inflation-conservative central banker improves inflation outcomes away from the lower bound but exacerbates the shortfall at the lower bound. Using government spending as an additional policy tool worsens stabilization outcomes both at and away from the lower bound. However, appointing a policymaker who is sufficiently less concerned with government spending stabilization than society can eliminate expectations-driven liquidity traps altogether. JEL Classification: E52, E61, E62

Suggested Citation

  • Nakata, Taisuke & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2019. "Expectations-driven liquidity traps: implications for monetary and fiscal policy," Working Paper Series 2304, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20192304
    Note: 2179645
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kollmann, Robert, 2021. "Liquidity traps in a world economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    2. Holden, Tom D., 2022. "Robust real rate rules," Discussion Papers 42/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Ascari, Guido & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2022. "The unbearable lightness of equilibria in a low interest rate environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 1-17.
    4. Hills, Timothy S. & Nakata, Taisuke & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2019. "Effective lower bound risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    5. Piergallini, Alessandro, 2022. "Average inflation targeting and macroeconomic stability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    6. Nicolas Caramp & Sanjay R Singh, 2023. "Bond Premium Cyclicality and Liquidity Traps," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(6), pages 2822-2879.
    7. Yoichiro Tamanyu, 2020. "The Role of Nonlinearity in Indeterminate Models: An Application to Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2020-023, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    8. Ryan Banerjee & Aaron Mehrotra, 2023. "Unanticipated and Backward-Looking: Deflations and the Behavior of Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(4), pages 41-83, October.
    9. Alessandro Piergallini, 2021. "Fiscal Stimulus of Last Resort," Papers 2104.02753, arXiv.org.
    10. Chunbing Cai & Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, 2023. "Simple Analytics of the Government Investment Multiplier," Papers 2302.11212, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    discretion; effective lower bound; fiscal policy; monetary policy; policy delegation; sunspot equilibria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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