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Anticipation of future consumption: a monetary perspective

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  • McAdam, Peter
  • Faria, Joao Ricardo

Abstract

We adapt the (Sidrauski, 1967) monetary model to study the hypothesis of anticipation of future consumption. We assume that anticipation of future consumption affects an agent's instantaneous utility and that all effects of future consumption on current wellbeing are captured by the stock of future consumption. Monetary policy effectiveness is thereby reduced and a zero nominal lower interest rate (and thus the Friedman Rule) is destabilizing. Given this, we can derive a "just stable" equilibrium nominal interest rate with matching definitions for inflation and monetary growth. We demonstrate that these implied lower bounds match their historical analogues well. JEL Classification: E41, D91, O42

Suggested Citation

  • McAdam, Peter & Faria, Joao Ricardo, 2012. "Anticipation of future consumption: a monetary perspective," Working Paper Series 1448, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121448
    Note: 50336
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    Cited by:

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    3. Faria, João Ricardo & McAdam, Peter, 2018. "The green golden rule: Habit and anticipation of future consumption," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 131-133.
    4. Joao R. Faria & Peter Mcadam & Bruno Viscolani, 2023. "Monetary Policy, Neutrality, and the Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(7), pages 1889-1906, October.
    5. Manuel A. Gómez, 2022. "The good, the bad and the worse: current, past and future consumption externalities and equilibrium efficiency," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 195-228, December.
    6. Soldatos, Gerasimos T., 2014. "A Fiscal-Monetary Policy Scheme against Greek Indebtedness and Impoverishment - Un programma di politica fiscale-monetaria contro l’indebitamento e l’impoverimento della Grecia," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 67(2), pages 243-261.
    7. Merella, Vincenzo & Satchell, Stephen E., 2022. "By force of confidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    8. Philipp Hartmann & Kirstin Hubrich & Manfred Kremer, 2013. "Introducing Systemic Financial instability into macroeconomics: how to meet the challenge?," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 19, pages 2-9.
    9. Soldatos, Gerasimos T., 2014. "A Fiscal-Monetary Policy Scheme Against Greek Indebtedness and Impoverishment," MPRA Paper 57080, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Dimitris Christelis & Sébastien Pérez-Duarte, 2013. "The euro system household finance and consumption survey: an important resource for policy-makers and researchers," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 19, pages 13-17.
    11. Gómez, Manuel A., 2021. "On the closed-form solution of an endogenous growth model with anticipated consumption," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    12. João Ricardo Faria & Peter McAdam, 2023. "Janus's Money Demand and Time Inconsistency: A New Impossibility Theorem?," Research Working Paper RWP 23-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    13. Jiri Slacalek, 2013. "Wealth heterogeneity and the response of consumption to shocks," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 19, pages 10-12.
    14. Goncalo Monteiro & Stephen Turnovsky, 2013. "Anticipated Consumption and its Impact on Capital Accumulation and Growth: 'Forward-Looking' vs. 'Backward-Looking' Consumption Reference," CESifo Working Paper Series 4536, CESifo.
    15. Goncalo Monteiro & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2016. "Anticipated consumption and its impact on capital accumulation and growth: “Forward-looking” versus “backward-looking” consumption reference," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 12(3), pages 203-232, September.
    16. Bibaswan Chatterjee & Rolando Escobar‐Posada & Goncalo Monteiro, 2023. "Anticipation in leisure—Effects on labor‐leisure choice," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 19(2), pages 384-412, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    anticipation; consumption behavior; Friedman rule; money and growth; money demand; stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • O42 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Monetary Growth Models

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