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Learning from experience in the stock market

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  • Nakov, Anton
  • Nuño, Galo

Abstract

We study the dynamics of a Lucas-tree model with finitely lived agents who "learn from experience." Individuals update expectations by Bayesian learning based on observations from their own lifetimes. In this model, the stock price exhibits stochastic boom-and-bust fluctuations around the rational expectations equilibrium. This heterogeneous-agents economy can be approximated by a representative-agent model with constant-gain learning, where the gain parameter is related to the survival rate. JEL Classification: G12, D83, D84

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1396.

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Date of creation: Nov 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111396

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Keywords: assett pricing; bubbles; Heterogeneous Agents; Learning from experience; OLG;

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  1. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2013. "Stock Market Volatility and Learning," Working Papers 336, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  2. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Expectations, Learning And Business Cycle Fluctuations," CAMA Working Papers 2008-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. repec:acb:camaaa:2008-20 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2003. "Heterogeneous Learning," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 885-906, October.
  5. Chryssi Giannitsarou & Eva Carceles-Poveda, 2004. "Adaptive Learning in Practice," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 271, Society for Computational Economics.
  6. Ferrero, Giuseppe, 2007. "Monetary policy, learning and the speed of convergence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 3006-3041, September.
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  8. Milani, Fabio, 2007. "Expectations, learning and macroeconomic persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2065-2082, October.
  9. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2009. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk-Taking?," NBER Working Papers 14813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Liam Graham, 2011. "Learning, information and heterogeneity," CDMA Working Paper Series 201113, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  11. A. Meltzer & Peter Ordeshook & Thomas Romer, 1982. "Introduction," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 1-3, January.
  12. Blume, L. E. & Bray, M. M. & Easley, D., 1982. "Introduction to the stability of rational expectations equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 313-317, April.
  13. A. A. Brown & L. C. G. Rogers, 2009. "Heterogeneous Beliefs with Finite-Lived Agents," Papers 0907.4953, arXiv.org.
  14. Branch William & McGough Bruce, 2004. "Multiple Equilibria in Heterogeneous Expectations Models," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-16, December.
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