Financial imbalances and financial fragility
AbstractThis paper develops a general equilibrium model to analyze the link between financial imbalances and financial crises. The model features an interbank market subject to frictions and where two equilibria may (co-)exist. The normal times equilibrium is characterized by a deep market with highly leveraged banks. The crisis times equilibrium is characterized by bank deleveraging, a market run, and a liquidity trap. Crises occur when there is too much liquidity (savings) in the economy with respect to the number of (safe) investment opportunities. In effect, the economy is shown to have a limited liquidity absorption capacity, which depends —inter alia— on the productivity of the real sector, the ultimate borrower. I extend the model in order to analyze the effects of financial integration of an emerging and a developed country. I find results in line with the recent literature on global imbalances. Financial integration permits a more efficient allocation of savings worldwide in normal times. It also implies a current account deficit for the developed country. The current account deficit makes financial crises more likely when it exceeds the liquidity absorption capacity of the developed country. Thus, under some conditions —which this paper spells out— financial integration of emerging countries may increase the fragility of the international financial system. Implications of financial integration and global imbalances in terms of output, wealth distribution, welfare, and policy interventions are also discussed. JEL Classification: E21, F36, G01, G21
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1317.
Date of creation: Apr 2011
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-04-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2011-04-16 (Banking)
- NEP-CBA-2011-04-16 (Central Banking)
- NEP-CTA-2011-04-16 (Contract Theory & Applications)
- NEP-MIC-2011-04-16 (Microeconomics)
- NEP-OPM-2011-04-16 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
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- Hubrich, Kirstin & Philipp, Hartmann & Kirstin, Hubrich & Manfred, Kremer & Tetlow, Robert J., 2013. "Melting down: Systemic financial instability and the macroeconomy," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80487, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Panzera, Fabio S., 2011. "Price stability and financial imbalances: rethinking the macrofinancial framework after the 2007-8 financial crisis," FSES Working Papers 423, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
- Itai Agur, 2011. "Bank Risk within and across Equilibria," DNB Working Papers 305, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
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