Bayesian prior elicitation in DSGE models: macro- vs micro-priors
AbstractBayesian approaches to the estimation of DSGE models are becoming increasingly popular. Prior knowledge is normally formalized either be information concerning deep parameters’ values (‘microprior’) or some macroeconomic indicator, e.g. moments of observable variables (‘macroprior’). In this paper we introduce a non parametric prior which is elicited from impulse response functions. Results show that using either a microprior or a macroprior can lead to different posterior estimates. We probe into the details of our result, showing that model misspecification is to blame for that. JEL Classification: C11, C51, E30.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1289.
Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2011
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Other versions of this item:
- Lombardi, Marco J. & Nicoletti, Giulio, 2012. "Bayesian prior elicitation in DSGE models: Macro- vs micropriors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 294-313.
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-01-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-01-23 (Central Banking)
- NEP-DGE-2011-01-23 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-ECM-2011-01-23 (Econometrics)
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- Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2012.
"Identification of animal spirits in a bounded rationality model: An application to the euro area,"
Economics Working Papers
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- Dario Caldara & Richard Harrison & Anna Lipinska, 2012. "Practical tools for policy analysis in DSGE models with missing channels," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-72, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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