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Current account benchmarks for central and eastern Europe - a desperate search?

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Author Info
Michele Ca’ Zorzi () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Alexander Chudik () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Alistair Dieppe () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

This paper examines two competing approaches for calculating current account benchmarks, i.e. the external sustainability approach á la Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (LM) versus the structural current accounts literature (SCA) based on panel econometric techniques. The aim is to gauge the medium term adjustment in current account positions that may be required in some central and eastern European countries. As regards the LM approach, we show how the outcome is especially sensitive to (i) the normative choice for external indebtedness and (ii) the decision to exclude the foreign direct investment subcomponent from the NFA aggregate. Turning our search to the SCA approach, we assess its sensitivity to model and parameter uncertainty by setting different selection criteria to choose amongst the over 8000 possible combinations of fundamentals. Furthermore, to test the robustness of our findings we combine all models, attaching to each a probability (Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates). We show both the LM and SCA methodologies are not immune from severe drawbacks and conceptual difficulties. Nevertheless pulling together the results of both approaches point to the countries that may need a current account adjustment over a medium term horizon. JEL Classification: C11, C33, F15, F32, F34, F41, O52.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 995.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20090995

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Related research
Keywords: Current account; capital flows; financial integration; central and eastern Europe; panel data; model uncertainty; model combination.;

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    Other versions:
  2. Sheffrin, Steven M. & Woo, Wing Thye, 1990. "Present value tests of an intertemporal model of the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 237-253, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Otto, Glenn & Voss, Graham M., 1995. "Consumption, external assets and the real interest rate," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 471-494. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 2006. "Capital Flows to Central and Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 06/188, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Paolo Zanghieri, 2004. "Current Accounts Dynamics in new EU members: Sustainability and Policy Issues," Working Papers 2004-07, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Nason, James M. & Rogers, John H., 2006. "The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: Round up the usual suspects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 159-187, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Ashoka Mody & Abdul Abiad & Daniel Leigh, 2007. "International Finance and Income Convergence: Europe is Different," IMF Working Papers 07/64, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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