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Measuring monetary policy expectations from financial market instruments

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  • Joyce, Michael
  • Relleen, Jonathan
  • Sorensen, Steffen

Abstract

This paper reviews the main instruments and associated yield curves that can be used to measure financial market participants’ expectations of future UK monetary policy rates. We attempt to evaluate these instruments and curves in terms of their ability to forecast policy rates over the period from October 1992, when the United Kingdom first adopted an explicit inflation target, to March 2007. We also investigate several model-based methods of estimating forward term premia, in order to calculate riskadjusted forward interest rates. On the basis of both in and out-of-sample test results, we conclude that, given the uncertainties involved, it is unwise to rely on any one technique to measure policy rate expectations and that the best approach is to take an inclusive approach, using a variety of methods and information. JEL Classification: E43, E44, E52

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0978.

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Date of creation: Dec 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080978

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Keywords: forecasting; Interest Rates; term premia;

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  1. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-92, September.
  2. Pilegaard, Rasmus & Durré, Alain & Evjen, Snorre, 2003. "Estimating risk premia in money market rates," Working Paper Series 0221, European Central Bank.
  3. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02.
  4. Joyce, Michael & Lildholdt, Peter & Sorensen, Steffen, 2009. "Extracting inflation expectations and inflation risk premia from the term structure: a joint model of the UK nominal and real yield curves," Bank of England working papers 360, Bank of England.
  5. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2006. "Market-based measures of monetary policy expectations," Working Paper Series 2006-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Monika Piazzesi & Eric Swanson, 2004. "Future prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  7. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Risk Premia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 138-160, March.
  8. Rachel Lomax, 2005. "Inflation Targeting in Practice: Models, Forecasts, and Hunches," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(3), pages 251-265, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Chris Florackis & Alexandros Kontonikas & Alexandros Kostakis, 2010. "Transmission of macro-liquidity shocks to liquidity-sorted stock portfolios’ returns: The role of the financial crisis," Working Papers 2011_22, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Apr 2011.
  2. Florackis, Chris & Kontonikas, Alexandros & Kostakis, Alexandros, 2013. "Stock Market Liquidity and Macro-Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-58, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  3. Carlo Rosa, 2012. "How "unconventional" are large-scale asset purchases? The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Staff Reports 560, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Peter Aling & Shakill Hassan, 2011. "No-Arbitrage One-Factor Models of the South African Term-Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 246, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  5. Ye, Xiaoxia, 2012. "Market expectations of the short rate and the term structure of interest rates: a new perspective from the classic model," MPRA Paper 41093, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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