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Budgetary and external imbalances relationship: a panel data diagnostic

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  • Afonso, António
  • Rault, Christophe

Abstract

We assess the cointegration relationship between current account and budget balances, and effective real exchange rates, using recent bootstrap panel cointegration techniques and SUR methods. We investigate the magnitude of the relationship between the two imbalances for each country for the period 1970-2007, and for different EU and OECD country groupings. The panel cointegration tests used allow for within and between correlation, while the SUR results show both positive and negative effects of budget balances on current account balances for several countries. The magnitude of the effects varies across countries, and there is no evidence pointing to a direct and close relationship between budgetary and current account balances. JEL Classification: C23, E62, F32, H62

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0961.

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Date of creation: Nov 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080961

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Keywords: budget balance; EU; external balance; Panel Cointegration;

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Cited by:
  1. Sophocles Brissimis & George Hondroyiannis & Christos Papazoglou & Nicholas Tsaveas & Melina Vasardani, 2013. "The determinants of current account imbalances in the euro area: a panel estimation approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 299-319, August.
  2. Olivier Gervais & Lawrence Schembri & Lena Suchanek, 2011. "External Stability, Real Exchange Rate Adjustment and the Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging-Market Economies," Discussion Papers 11-5, Bank of Canada.
  3. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "Short and Long-run Behaviour of Long-term Sovereign Bond Yields," Working Papers Department of Economics 2010/19, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  4. Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric & Rault, Christophe, 2013. "Equity risk premium and regional integration," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 79-85.
  5. Christophe Rault & António Afonso, 2009. "Bootstrap panel granger-causality between government budget and external deficits for the EU," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1027-1034.
  6. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Untangling the causal relationship between government budget and current account deficits in OECD countries: Evidence from bootstrap panel Granger causality," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 95-104.
  7. Eggoh, Jude C. & Bangake, Chrysost & Rault, Christophe, 2011. "Energy consumption and economic growth revisited in African countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7408-7421.
  8. Yoichi Matsubayashi, 2010. "Budget Deficits and Current Account in Japan and the U.S.: An Empirical Evidence on the Twin Deficits Hypothesis," Discussion Papers 1010, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
  9. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Christophe Rault, 2011. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Volatility and International Financial Integration: A Dynamic GMM Panel Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 3645, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Gossé, Jean-Baptiste & Serranito, Francisco, 2014. "Long-run determinants of current accounts in OECD countries: Lessons for intra-European imbalances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 451-462.
  11. Aristovnik, Aleksander & Djurić, Sandra, 2010. "Twin deficits and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: a comparison of the EU member states and candidate countries," MPRA Paper 24149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "The dynamic linkages of fiscal and current account deficits: New evidence from five highly indebted European countries accounting for regime shifts and asymmetries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 502-510.

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