Oil exporters: in search of an external anchor
AbstractThis paper discusses the choice of an optimal external anchor for oil exporting economies, using optimum currency area criteria and simulations of a simple model of a small open economy pegging to a basket of two currencies. Oil exporting countries - in particular those of the Gulf Cooperation Council - satisfy a number of key optimum currency area criteria to adopt a peg. However, direction of trade and synchronisation of business cycle of oil exporters suggest that there is no single "ideal" external anchor among the major international currencies. Model simulations - parameterised for an oil exporting economy - indicate that a currency basket is generally preferable to a single currency peg, especially when some weight is placed by the policy maker on output stabilisation. Only when inflation becomes the only policy objective and external trade is mostly conducted in one currency that a peg to a single currency becomes optimal. JEL Classification: F31, C30, C51, C61, O24
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Date of creation: Nov 2008
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
- O24 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-12-01 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-12-01 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ENE-2008-12-01 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-MON-2008-12-01 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-OPM-2008-12-01 (Open Economy Macroeconomics)
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- Zhang, Zhichao & Shi, Nan & Zhang, Xiaoli, 2011.
"China’s new exchange rate regime, optimal basket currency and currency diversification,"
32642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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- Serhan Cevik & Katerina Teksoz, 2013. "Hitchhikerâ€™s Guide to Inflation in Libya," IMF Working Papers 13/78, International Monetary Fund.
- Al-Abri, Almukhtar Saif, 2014. "Optimal exchange rate policy for a small oil-exporting country: A dynamic general equilibrium perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 88-98.
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