Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles
AbstractWe explore the dynamic effects of news about a future technology improvement which turns out ex post to be overoptimistic. We find that it is difficult to generate a boom-bust cycle (a period in which stock prices, consumption, investment and employment all rise and then crash) in response to such a news shock, in a standard real business cycle model. However, a monetized version of the model which stresses sticky wages and a Taylorrule based monetary policy naturally generates a welfare-reducing boom-bust cycle in response to a news shock. We explore the possibility that integrating credit growth into monetary policy may result in improved performance. We discuss the robustness of our analysis to alternative specifications of the labor market, in which wage-setting frictions do not distort on going firm/worker relations. JEL Classification: C11, C51, E5, E13, E32.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 955.
Length: 97 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
- E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-11-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-11-11 (Central Banking)
- NEP-DGE-2008-11-11 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-MAC-2008-11-11 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2008-11-11 (Monetary Economics)
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