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How successful is the G7 in managing exchange rates?

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Abstract

The paper assesses the extent to which the Group of Seven (G7) has been successful in its management of major currencies since the 1970s. Using an event-study approach, the paper finds evidence that the G7 has been overall effective in moving the US dollar, yen and euro in the intended direction at horizons of up to three months after G7 meetings, but not at longer horizons. While the success of the G7 is partly dependent on the market environment, it is also to a significant degree endogenous to the policy process itself. The findings indicate that the reputation and credibility of the G7, as well as its ability to form and communicate a consensus among individual G7 members, are important determinants for the G7’s ability to manage major currencies. The paper concludes by analyzing the factors that help the G7 build reputation and consensus, and by discussing the implications for global economic governance. JEL Classification: F31, F33, F50.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 952.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080952

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Related research

Keywords: Group of Seven; G7; exchange rate; communication; policy; adjustment; success; event-study methodology; US dollar; yen; euro.;

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  1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Benjamin Born & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2011. "Macroprudential policy and central bank communication," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential regulation and policy, volume 60, pages 107-110 Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2009. "Do China and oil exporters influence major currency configurations?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 25, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  3. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2009. "How successful is the G7 in managing exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 78-88, September.
  4. Fracasso, Andrea & Schiavo, Stefano, 2009. "Global imbalances, exchange rates adjustment and the crisis: Implications from network analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 601-619, September.
  5. Menkhoff, Lukas, 2012. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets: A Survey of Empirical Studies," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover dp-498, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  6. Kentaro Iwatsubo & Satoshi Kawanishi, 2011. "The Information Improving Channel of Exchange Rate Intervention: How Do Official Announcements Work?," Discussion Papers 1116, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.

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