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Macroeconomic adjustment to monetary union

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  • Fagan, Gabriel
  • Gaspar, Vítor

Abstract

The move to monetary union in Europe led to convergence of interest rates among the participating countries. This was associated with notable cross-country differences in the behaviour of key macroeconomic aggregates. Compared to the low interest rate countries, former high interest rate countries experienced a boom in domestic demand, a deterioration of the current account and appreciation of the real exchange rate. This paper documents the key stylised facts of this experience and provides a compact two-country model, based on the Blanchard-Yaari setup, to analyze this phenomenon. This model, though simple, is able to broadly capture the main qualitative features of the adjustment. Using this model, we show that the creation of the monetary union leads to an increase in welfare for all generations in both country groups. JEL Classification: F36, E21, F32

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0946.

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Date of creation: Oct 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080946

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Keywords: euro area; interest rate convergence; overlapping generations model;

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Cited by:
  1. Mojmir Hampl & Michal Skorepa, 2011. "Long-run equilibrium exchange rate notions in monetary policy strategies: the case of the Czech National Bank," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Capital flows, commodity price movements and foreign exchange intervention, volume 57, pages 155-162 Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Karl Farmer, 2013. "Financial Integration and EMU's External Imbalances in a Two-Country OLG Model," Graz Economics Papers 2013-07, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
  3. Susanu, Monica, 2009. "Convergence to EMU through the Test of the Public Finance –Romania’s Budgetary Deficit and Public Debt," MPRA Paper 20480, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Giavazzi, Francesco & Spaventa, Luigi, 2010. "Why the current account may matter in a monetary union: Lessons from the financial crisis in the Euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 8008, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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