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Towards a monetary policy evaluation framework

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  • Adjemian, Stéphane
  • Darracq Pariès, Matthieu
  • Moyen, Stéphane

Abstract

Advances in the development of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models towards medium-scale structural frameworks with satisfying data coherence have considerably enhanced the range of analytical tools well-suited for monetary policy evaluation. The present paper intends to make a step forward in this direction: using US data over the Volker-Greenspan sample, we perform a DGSE-VAR estimation of a medium-scale DSGE model very close to Smets and Wouters [2007] specification, where monetary policy is set according to a Ramsey-planner decision problem. Those results are then contrasted with the DSGE-VAR estimation of the same model featuring a Taylortype interest rate rule. Our results show in particular that the restrictions imposed by the welfare-maximizing Ramsey policy deteriorates the empirical performance with respect to a Taylor rule specification. However, it turns out that, along selected conditional dimensions, and notably for productivity shocks, the Ramsey policy and the estimated Taylor rule deliver similar economic propagation. JEL Classification: E4, E5, F4

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0942.

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Date of creation: Sep 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080942

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Keywords: Bayesian estimation; DSGE Models; optimal monetary policy;

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  1. Adjemian, Stéphane & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Moyen, Stéphane, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy in an estimated DSGE for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0803, European Central Bank.
  2. Richard Dennis, 2006. "The policy preferences of the US Federal Reserve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 55-77.
  3. Matheron, Julien & Avouyi-Dovi, Sanvi, 2007. "Technology shocks and monetary policy : Revisiting the Fed's performance," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/5491, Paris Dauphine University.
  4. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: II. Applications," Levine's Bibliography 506439000000000394, UCLA Department of Economics.
  5. Galí, Jordi & Lopez-Salido, Jose David & Vallés Liberal, Javier, 2002. "Technology Shocks and Monetary Policy: Assessing the Fed's Performance," CEPR Discussion Papers 3211, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Raf Wouters & Frank Smets, 2005. "Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 161-183.
  7. Aubhik Khan & Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 2000. "Optimal monetary policy," Working Paper 00-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
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  9. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "On the Fit of New Keynesian Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 123-143, April.
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  14. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
  15. Adjemian, Stéphane & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Smets, Frank, 2008. "A quantitative perspective on optimal monetary policy cooperation between the US and the euro area," Working Paper Series 0884, European Central Bank.
  16. Miles S. Kimball & Michael Woodford, 1994. "The quantitative analysis of the basic neomonetarist model," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1241-1289.
  17. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Priors from general equilibrium models for VARs," Working Paper 2002-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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Cited by:
  1. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa, 2013. "Bayesian evaluation of DSGE models with financial frictions," Working Papers 71, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
  2. Rangan Gupta & Rudi Steinbach, 2010. "Forecasting Key Macroeconomic Variables of the South African Economy: A Small Open Economy New Keynesian DSGE-VAR Model," Working Papers 201019, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  3. Gupta, Rangan & Steinbach, Rudi, 2013. "A DSGE-VAR model for forecasting key South African macroeconomic variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 19-33.
  4. Carlos Garcia & Wildo Gonzalez, 2009. "Rationale behind the responses of monetary policy to the real exchange rate in small open economies," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv228, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
  5. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Loublier, Alexis, 2010. "Epstein-Zin preferences and their use in macro-finance models: implications for optimal monetary policy," Working Paper Series 1209, European Central Bank.
  6. Carlos Garcia & Wildo Gonzalez, 2010. "Is more exchange rate intervention necessary in small open economies? The role of risk premium and commodity shocks," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv248, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.

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