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The euro's influence upon trade - Rose effect versus border effect

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Author Info
Gianluca Cafiso () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

This paper assesses the Euro’s influence upon European trade by estimating two different indicators. The first is the so-called “Rose Effect”, while the second is the “Border Effect”. The former measures how much a country within a currency union trades more with its partners than with non-member countries, the latter measures the integration of a country with its trade partners. This study of the Euro’s influence by means of the Border Effect is a novelty in the literature, it reveals that the Euro’s influence upon trade is not so clear as papers focused only on the Rose Effect claim. This casts doubts about the consequences of the Euro introduction for the European Single Market. Both indicators are estimated by means of a gravity model for bilateral trade flows using a panel of manufacture exports among twenty-four OECD countries. JEL Classification: F10, F14, F15.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 941.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080941

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Related research
Keywords: Euro; European Integration; Trade; Rose Effect; Border Effect.;

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    Other versions:
  3. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H, 1996. "How Wide Is the Border?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1112-25, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo OrdoÒez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Shang-Jin Wei, 1996. "Intra-National versus International Trade: How Stubborn are Nations in Global Integration?," NBER Working Papers 5531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 49-63. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Jan F. Kiviet, 2005. "Judging Contending Estimators by Simulation: Tournaments in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-112/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate Of The Effect Of Common Currencies On Trade And Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Davide Furceri & Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, 2008. "Government spending volatility and the size of nations," Working Paper Series 924, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Helge Berger & Volker Nitsch, 2005. "Zooming Out: The Trade Effect of the Euro in Historical Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2002. "Illusory Border Effects: Distance Mismeasurement Inflates Estimates of Home Bias in Trade," Working Papers 2002-01, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  14. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Chen, Natalie, 2004. "Intra-national versus international trade in the European Union: why do national borders matter?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 93-118, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Francesco Paolo Mongelli & Ettore Dorrucci & Itai Agur, 2005. "What does European institutional integration tell us about trade integration?," Occasional Paper Series 40, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  21. Steve Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to microdata methods and practice," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
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