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Should quarterly government finance statistics be used for fiscal surveillance in Europe?

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Author Info
Javier J. Pérez () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Diego J. Pedregal () (Universidad de Castilla-la-Mancha, Real Casa de La Misericordia, Calle Altagracia, 50, 13003 Ciadad Real, Spain.)

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Abstract

We use a newly available dataset of euro area quarterly national accounts fiscal data and construct multivariate, state-space mixed-frequencies models for the government deficit, revenue and expenditure in order to assess its information content and its potential use for fiscal forecasting and monitoring purposes. The models are estimated with annual and quarterly national accounts fiscal data, but also incorporate monthly information taken from the cash accounts of the governments. The results show the usefulness of our approach for real-time fiscal policy surveillance in Europe, given the current policy framework in which the relevant official figures are expressed in annual terms. JEL Classification: C53, E6, H6.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 937.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080937

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Related research
Keywords: Fiscal policies; Mixed frequency data; Forecasting; Unobserved Components Models; State Space; Kalman Filter.;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  3. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443. [Downloadable!]
  4. Liu, H & Hall, Stephen G, 2001. "Creating High-Frequency National Accounts with State-Space Modelling: A Monte Carlo Experiment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 441-49, September.
  5. Luca Onorante & Diego J. Pedregal & Javier J. Pérez & Sara Signorini, 2008. "The usefulness of infra-annual government cash budgetary data for fiscal forecasting in the euro area," Working Paper Series 901, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2001. "Fiscal forecasting: The track record of the IMF, OECD and EC," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages S20-S36.
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  7. Perez, Javier J., 2007. "Leading indicators for euro area government deficits," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 259-275. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Andrew Harvey & Chia-Hui Chung, 2000. "Estimating the underlying change in unemployment in the UK," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 163(3), pages 303-309. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
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  11. Filippo Moauro & Giovanni Savio, 2005. "Temporal disaggregation using multivariate structural time series models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 214-234, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2007. "Fiscal forecasting - lessons from the literature and challenges," Working Paper Series 843, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Luca Onorante & Diego J. Pedregal & Javier J. Pérez & Sara Signorini, 2008. "The usefulness of infra-annual government cash budgetary data for fiscal forecasting in the euro area," Working Paper Series 901, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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