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Should quarterly government finance statistics be used for fiscal surveillane in Europe?

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  • Pedregal, Diego J.
  • Pérez, Javier J.

Abstract

We use a newly available dataset of euro area quarterly national accounts fiscal data and construct multi-variate, state-space mixed-frequencies models for the government deficit, revenue and expenditure in order to assess its information content and its potential use for fiscal forecasting and monitoring purposes. The models are estimated with annual and quarterly national accounts fiscal data, but also incorporate monthly information taken from the cash accounts of the governments. The results show the usefulness of our approach for real-time fiscal policy surveillance in Europe, given the current policy framework in which the relevant official figures are expressed in annual terms. JEL Classification: C53, E6, H6

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0937.

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Date of creation: Sep 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080937

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Keywords: Fiscal policies; forecasting; Mixed frequency data; Unobserved Components;

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  10. Onorante, Luca & Pedregal, Diego J. & Pérez, Javier J. & Signorini, Sara, 2010. "The usefulness of infra-annual government cash budgetary data for fiscal forecasting in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 98-119, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Bianchi, Giuseppe & Cesaroni, Tatiana & Ricchi, Ottavio, 2010. "Previsioni delle Spese del Bilancio dello Stato attraverso i flussi di contabilità finanziaria
    [Forecasting Budget Expenditures using budget entities]
    ," MPRA Paper 27440, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Teresa Leal Linares & Javier J. Pérez, 2009. "Un sistema ARIMA con agregación temporal para la previsión y el seguimiento del déficit del Estado," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 190(3), pages 27-58, June.
  3. Leal, Teresa & Pérez, Javier J. & Tujula, Mika & Vidal, Jean-Pierre, 2007. "Fiscal forecasting: lessons from the literature and challenges," Working Paper Series 0843, European Central Bank.
  4. Onorante, Luca & Pedregal, Diego J. & Pérez, Javier J. & Signorini, Sara, 2008. "The usefulness of infra-annual government cash budgetary data for fiscal forecasting in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0901, European Central Bank.

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