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Sticky information Phillips curves: European evidence

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  • Döpke, Jörg
  • Dovern, Jonas
  • Fritsche, Ulrich
  • Slacalek, Jiri

Abstract

We estimate the sticky information Phillips curve model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) using survey expectations of professional forecasters from four major European economies. Our estimates imply that inflation expectations in France, Germany and the United Kingdom are updated about once a year, in Italy about once each six months. JEL Classification: E62, H20, H50, H62

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0930.

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Date of creation: Sep 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080930

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Keywords: inflation expectations; Inflation persistence; Phillips curve; sticky information;

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  1. Hashmat Khan & Zhenhua Zhu, 2002. "Estimates of the Sticky-Information Phillips Curve for the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom," Working Papers 02-19, Bank of Canada.
  2. Oleg Korenok, 2005. "Empirical Comparison of Sticky Price and Sticky Information Models," Working Papers 0501, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics.
  3. Ricardo Reis, 2004. "Inattentive Consumers," NBER Working Papers 10883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations Of Households And Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298, February.
  5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information: A Model of Monetary Nonneutrality and Structural Slumps," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1941, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  6. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07.
  7. Michael T. Kiley, 2005. "A quantitative comparison of sticky-price and sticky-information models of price setting," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  9. Jörg Döpke & Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Jiri Slacalek, 2006. "The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 571, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band Pass Filter," NBER Working Papers 7257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
  11. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2006. "Pervasive Stickiness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 164-169, May.
  12. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
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  15. Ricardo Reis, 2006. "Inattentive Producers," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(3), pages 793-821.
  16. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2006. "Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 303-320, March.
  17. Ball, Laurence & Romer, David, 1990. "Real Rigidities and the Non-neutrality of Money," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), pages 183-203, April.
  18. Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2005. "Pricing models: a Bayesian DSGE approach to the U.S. economy," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Pivetta, Frederic & Reis, Ricardo, 2007. "The persistence of inflation in the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1326-1358, April.
  20. Khan, Hashmat & Zhu, Zhenhua, 2006. "Estimates of the Sticky-Information Phillips Curve for the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 195-207, February.
  21. Slacalek, Jirka & Fritsche, Ulrich & Dovern, Jonas & Döpke, Jörg, 2005. "European inflation expectations dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,37, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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